More proof there are no winners in a trade war

September usually marks a turning point of sorts for most people. Summer turns to fall, vacation turns to school and the green hope and promise of growing crops turns into the yellow and gold of harvest.

This September feels different, though.

First is that impending harvest. On Aug. 12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast a whopper corn crop.

According to USDA, this year’s production will smash the all-time record by an astonishing 1.4 billion bushels, reaching a bin-busting 16.7 billion bushels.

Big yields usually bring lower prices and USDA expects the 2025-2026 season corn price to average a skinny $3.90 per bushel, 30 cents less than its month-ago estimate.

And that’s despite anticipated record exports of 2.9 billion bushels and a collective 11.7 billion bushels ticketed for domestic animal feed and ethanol production.

A very good soybean crop also awaits. USDA estimates 2025 production at 4.3 billion bushels, just 300 million bushels less than a year ago.

That adequate supply and trade worries — both known and unknown — are keeping market bulls at bay. USDA projects average marketing year price for soybeans at a trim $10.32 per bushel

USDA’s forecast for wheat’s average price, $5.30 per bushel, and per pound price for cotton, 64 cents, suggest thin-to-invisible profits for both, also.

If the coming year’s low commodity prices are bad news, the really bad news is the endless tariff threats emanating from the White House.

“Persistent trade uncertainty,” noted American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Faith Parum recently, “further clouds the outlook” — understatement is an AFBF job requirement.

As those clouds now gather, some farm groups are hardening their tariff views. On Aug. 19, a week after USDA’s uninspiring price forecast, the American Soybean Association “urged President Trump to prioritize soybeans in U.S.-China trade talks, warning that retaliatory tariffs are shutting American farmers out of their largest export market.”

It’s worse than that. According to USDA, U.S. ag exports to China will fall to $9 billion in fiscal 2026, roughly half of last year’s $17 billion, and tens of billions under fiscal year 2022’s record sales of — you might want to sit down for this — $36.4 billion.

And that’s just China. Recent White House run-ins with Mexico, Canada, the European Union, Japan and now India portend more ag export woes.

In the recently released quarterly ag trade report, USDA noted that our ongoing ag trade deficit will narrow this year, from $49.5 billion forecast in June to $47 billion now. Next year, says USDA, the deficit will drop to an estimated $41.5 billion.

What appears to be good news, however, is lukewarm news at best. While part of the shrinking deficit is tied to a $3 billion increase in ag exports, most of the difference comes by way of flagging food imports, off by an estimated $10 billion.

Which is what you’d expect as our general economy continues its slow slide south; food imports — mainly high value items such as wine, olive oil and coffee — slide with it.

Farmers aren’t alone. American eaters aren’t benefiting from today’s cheapening farm prices.

Beef prices, riding our 50-year low in U.S. cattle numbers, have risen 11% since January. Egg prices, while cheapening, are still 16% higher than last July.

Which is a pretty neat trick courtesy of the White House: U.S. food buyers are getting pinched because of higher prices and import tariffs even as U.S. farmers are getting pinched by low prices and retaliatory tariffs.

Proving once again, there are no winners in a trade war.