Federal Reserve Bank

From the Columbia Missourian newspaper: “Harry Truman remains near the top of a list of U.S. presidents ranked this year by C-SPAN, the public affairs TV network.

One of the oldest sayings on Wall Street touted by seasoned investors and traders goes like this: The trend is your friend. However, the trend is only your friend until it isn’t. Or, as some say, until the trend bends and a new trend emerges.

National economic activity expanded modestly across Federal Reserve Bank districts, but condition varied across industries and districts, according to the latest Beige Book.

The Federal Reserve is finding it harder to cool the economy than almost anyone expected. Most corners of the U.S. economy are performing very well considering the Fed has been aggressively raising rates for seven months.

Over the past month, well-respected brokerage firms, legendary money managers and market forecasters with excellent track records have been predicting the U.S. and global economies are poised to slip into a recession.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates and crop production reports featured a mixed bag of many moving parts for the trade to digest. Arlan Suderman, StoneX Group chief commodities economist, gave his insight on the USDA reports in a webinar.

The third quarter of 2022 ended historically bearish. Stocks as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22%, the S&P 500 dropped 25% and the Nasdaq hit the skids to the tune of 33%. Bonds tend to hold up better than stocks.

Fears are growing that the Federal Reserve is pushing interest rates too high too fast and the results will lead to a recession — a Fed-induced recession that could be far more severe than many expect.

The big news rattling the entire Big Four — stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities — was the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates for the third consecutive time this calendar year by 75 basis points, the fifth increase of the year.

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits dropped, a sign that few companies are cutting jobs despite high inflation and a weak economy. Applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending Sept. 24 fell by 16,000 to 193,000, the Labor Department reported.

There were two big events the stock and commodity markets faced this week, as well some breaking news that was positive for U.S. grain producers. As a result, this week was one for the record books by any measure.

Adverse growing conditions are among the concerns noted in several Federal Reserve districts as reported in the latest Beige Book.

It was exactly two years ago this month that I turned wildly bullish the commodity markets, and with the benefit of hindsight, it was a well-timed forecast.

There were three news stories this week that dominated the headlines and caught the attention of investors, traders and ag producers. One was the Federal Reserve meeting held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where everyone was hoping to get a clue about further interest rate hikes.

The weakness impacting most all markets began around June 15 when the Fed raised interest rates three-quarters of a percentage point. A few weeks ago the Fed lifted rates another three-quarters of a percentage point and the weakness continued to impact most markets once again.