Illinois, Indiana show sow strength

URBANDALE, Iowa — Two Midwest states, traditionally strong in pork production, came from behind in regards to increases in the U.S. swine breeding herd going into 2022.

“Are those states leading the way?” asked David Miller, chief economist at Design Innovation Solutions, the economic research and analysis firm based in Urbandale, in a discussion regarding the last U.S. Department of Agriculture Hogs and Pigs report of 2021.

The numbers, from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service report, would appear to say yes.

Illinois and Indiana led the way into the new year with larger swine breeding herd numbers.

“You’ve got the second tier of states — Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska — that all are showing increases this year,” said Miller, one of three livestock economists who offered their thoughts on the fourth-quarter Hogs and Pigs report in a call sponsored by the Pork Checkoff.

In Illinois, the breeding herd was up sharply from a year ago, at 590,000 head as of Dec. 1, compared to 550,000 a year ago. But Illinois farmers reduced farrowings, with the September-November farrowings at 250,000 head, down from 300,000 head a year ago.

Indiana’s breeding herd, as of Dec. 1, was at 260,000 head, up from the same time a year ago, when it stood at 250,000 head. Indiana farmers had 130,000 sows farrowing in the September-November 2021 time frame, up from 120,000 a year ago.

Iowa still holds first place in sheer numbers when it comes to the U.S. swine herd. The Iowa swine breeding herd stood at 920,000 head as of Dec. 1. That was a decrease from a year ago, when the Iowa breeding herd was at 950,000 head.

In second place, North Carolina showed decreases in its swine breeding herd with 810,000 breeding animals on hand as of Dec. 1, 2021, compared to 840,000 on Dec. 1, 2020.

“You’ve got the two biggest states, with regard to breeding herd, Iowa and North Carolina, having two consecutive years of declining breeding herd,” Miller said.

With the U.S. pork and processing industry continuing to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and related packing plant shutdowns, Miller said the Illinois and Indiana breeding herd numbers could be an indicator of that recovery.

“I am trying to dig into the data a little bit and see if some of the responses had to do with correlations to where plants had some of the most problems in 2020 with regard to hog movement and hog processing,” he said.

Overall, the last report of 2021 portended a bullish market for pork producers.

“This is a positive report, in my estimation, and one of the reasons is that market hog inventory, which I want talk about, says smaller, not only smaller than a year ago, but well smaller than trade expectations,” said Ron Plain, livestock economist and professor emeritus at the University of Missouri at Columbia.

The all hogs and pigs number, as of Dec. 1, was at 74.201 million head, down 4% from a year ago and a noticeable difference from analysts’ pre-report estimates, that had the number down 2.8% from a year ago.

The market hog inventory, at 68.021 million, was down 4.4% from a year ago and analysts thought that would be down 2.9%.

The two heavy market weight categories also showed a noticeable deviation from those pre-report estimates. The 120 to 179 pound category, at 14.809 million head, was down 6.2% from a year ago. Analysts predicted that number would be down only 3.8%.

The 180 pound and over weight category, at 12.857 million head, was down 6% and analysts predicted that number would be down 3% from the December 2020 report.

“In general, a tight supply of hogs for the next five months and likely some pretty good prices for hog producers as a result of that,” Plain said.

United States

All hogs and pigs: 74.201 million head

Breeding herd: 6.18 million head

Market hogs: 68.021 million head

Weight Classes

Under 50 pounds: 21.174 million head

51 to 119 pounds: 19.15 million head

120 to 179 pounds: 14.809 million head

180 pounds and over: 12.857 million head

Farrowings

September-November — actual: 3.012 million head

December-February — intentions: 2.943 million head

March-May — intentions: 3.01 million head

September-November pig crop: 33.712 million head

September-November pigs saved per litter: 11.19

Illinois

All hogs and pigs: 5.35 million head

Breeding herd: 590,000 head

Market hogs: 4.76 million head

Weight Classes

Under 50 pounds: 1.35 million head

51 to 119 pounds: 1.605 million head

120 to 179 pounds: 1.075 million head

180 pounds and over: 730,000 head

Farrowings

September-November — actual: 250,000 head

December-February — intentions: 265,000 head

March-May — intentions: 260,000 head

September-November pig crop: 2.675 million head

September-November pigs saved per litter: 10.7

Indiana

All hogs and pigs: 4.35 million head

Breeding herd: 260,000 head

Market hogs: 4.09 million head

Weight Classes

Under 50 pounds: 1.03 million head

51 to 119 pounds: 1.17 million head

120 to 179 pounds: 940,000 head

180 pounds and over: 950,000 head

Farrowings

September-November — actual: 130,000 head

December-February — intentions: 125,000 head

March-May — intentions: 130,000 head

September-November pig crop: 1.443 million head

September-November pigs saved per litter: 11.10