Selling strategy: Moving into new crop year, early basis signals will be important to watch

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Corn basis weakened across much of the eastern Corn Belt in August, but soybean basis told a very different story.

“Over the past month, corn basis to September futures fell by as much as 27 cents per bushel across the eastern Corn Belt, with gains limited to just 5 cents,” said Josh Strine, postdoctoral research assistant and agricultural economist at the Center for Commercial Agriculture at Purdue University.

“Soybean basis movement was more variable. Losses reached as much as 20 cents per bushel, while gains climbed as high as 24 cents.”

The broad corn weakening ended a trend of gains that had persisted through the summer.

“With the 2025-2026 marketing year drawing to a close, Iowa — which had trailed the rest of the region for most of the year — saw some positive movement in August, gaining ground in both corn and soybeans,” Strine said.

Basis is the difference between a local cash price and the relevant futures contract price for a specific time period. It is typically used to indicate current local demand.

Simply, basis is the difference in value between what the futures market says a bushel of grain is worth and what a buyer will pay for that bushel at their location.

Corn

Corn basis weakened in 30 of 41 crop reporting districts between the third week of July and the third week of August.

“While the region-wide weakening broke the trend of gains that had built through summer, it aligned with historical season patterns,” Strine said.

Basis weakened the most in southeast Indiana, where it fell by 27 cents per bushel to reach negative 32 cents.

“That is the weakest basis in the district for this time of year since the 2009-2010 crop year,” Strine said.

Sharp declines extended across the southern parts of Indiana, Illinois and Ohio, consistent with the 20 cents per bushel decrease in basis along the Ohio River.

Ohio’s picture was more mixed. Central Ohio weakened just 3 cents to positive 17 cents, sitting 17 cents above its three-year historical average.

However, east-central Ohio fell by 22 cents over the past month to negative 16 cents, now 30 cents below its historical average.

Iowa corn basis remained the weakest market in the five-state area. Northeast Iowa ended the period at negative 40 cents per bushel, 51 cents below its three-year historical average.

Iowa ethanol plant basis averaged negative 18 cents, 50 cents below its historical average.

However, Iowa’s movement was among the most stable. Six of Iowa’s nine districts had modest gains over the month.

“As other markets fell and Iowa held steady, the gap between Iowa and the rest of the region narrowed heading into September,” Strine said.

Soybeans

For soybeans, basis in 17 crop reporting districts strengthened and 23 weakened. The largest move came out of Iowa.

West-central and southwest Iowa each gained 24 cents per bushel, ending the period with cash prices above futures.

“Several western Iowa districts recorded their highest basis level for this time of year in over a decade,” Strine said. “The Iowa soybean processor market amplified this trend. Basis increased by 41 cents per bushel to positive 43 cents per bushel.”

Outside Iowa, gains were modest and scattered. Indiana and Ohio posted the strongest movements, with west-central Indiana gaining 8 cents and west-central Ohio gaining 10 cents.

Michigan was the only state where every district declined, with losses ranging from 3 to 18 cents per bushel.

The steepest decline came in south-central Ohio, down 20 cents, and southwest Indiana, down 18 cents.

“The soybean basis map looks meaningfully different from July,” Strine said. “The most dramatic shift was in western Iowa, which moved into positive territory for the first time this crop year.”

Heading into September, the highest basis is concentrated in central Indiana. West-central Indiana leads the region at positive 17 cents.

The weakest market remains in Michigan and northwestern Iowa, with east-central Michigan, the region’s low, at negative 46 cents.

Most of the southern districts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio have weakened since the July highs.

New Crop Year

The end of August marks the close of the 2025-2026 marketing year.

“In September, attention shifts to the new crop year,” Strine said.

As this year demonstrated, early signals matter, the economist said, noting Iowa corn basis was below the regional average from the start and remained so until August.

“Early September will tell us whether spatial patterns carry into the new year for both corn and soybeans,” he said.