Projected new crop average prices unchanged

WASHINGTON — With the updated data from the latest quarterly grain stocks and acreage reports, the U.S. Department of Agriculture made some slight adjustments in the crop balance sheets.

Corn: USDA kept the 2026-2027 projected season-average farm price at $4.40 per bushel from last month.

• New-crop corn beginning stocks were cut by 125 million bushels to 2 billion, reflecting an increase in feed and residual use that is partly offset by a reduction in corn used for ethanol for 2025-2026.

• Feed and residual use was increased by 150 million bushels based on indicated disappearance in the June 30 quarterly grain stocks report. Through the first three quarters of the marketing year, feed and residual use totaled just over 5.6 billion bushels, compared to about 4.8 billion during the same period a year ago.

• Corn used for ethanol was lowered 25 million bushels based on observed grain crush and ethanol production data to date.

• Corn production for 2026-2027 is up fractionally based on updated planted and harvested area from the June 30 acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 183 bushels per acre.

• Total use was hiked 50 million bushels on an increase in exports. Exports are higher, reflecting expectations of continued global demand strength.

• With use rising and supply falling, ending stocks are down 170 million bushels to 1.8 billion.

• Major global trade changes for 2026-2027 include larger corn exports for the United States and Canada, while imports were raised for the European Union, Kenya, Iraq, Jordan and Tunisia.

• For 2025-2026 corn exports were raised for Argentina, Ukraine, Russia, South Africa and the EU. Imports were reduced for China and Thailand, but increased for Jordan and Iraq.

• Foreign corn ending stocks for 2026-2027 were cut with reductions for China, Ukraine and the EU that are partly offset by an increase for Canada. Global corn stocks, at 275.3 million tons, are down 6 million.

Soybeans: The U.S. season-average price for new crop was unchanged from last month at $11.40 per bushel.

• Soybean production is projected at 4.475 billion bushels, up 40 million on higher harvested area. U.S. harvested area, projected at 84.4 million acres in the June 30 acreage report, is up 0.7 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 53 bushels per acre.

• U.S. soybean supplies for 2026-2027 were raised 30 million bushels as higher production is partly offset by lower beginning stocks.

• Domestic crush remained unchanged for both 2025-2026 and 2026-2027 with offsetting changes in soybean meal demand, reflecting higher exports and lower domestic consumption.

• U.S. soybean exports were increased 30 million bushels on increased supplies and stronger global demand.

• Higher supplies were offset by higher use, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 310 million bushels for 2026-2027.

• Global soybean production is raised 0.4 million tons, reflecting higher reported area for the United States and Canada, partially offset by reduced area for Russia.

• Global 2026-2027 soybean supply and use forecasts include higher production, increased exports and crush and lower ending stocks.

• USDA increased projected soybean exports for the United States and Brazil, while exports for Russia were reduced due to lower supplies.

• Soybean imports and crush were increased for China and Algeria, aligning with upward revisions to both imports and crush demand for the prior marketing year. With these changes, China’s year-over-year soybean meal domestic disappearance growth for 2026-2027 remains unchanged at 2%.

• Global soybean ending stocks were lowered 0.7 million tons to 124.2 million mainly on lower stocks for Brazil.

Wheat: The 2026-2027 season-average farm price was unchanged from last month at $6 per bushel, compared to last year’s final average of $5.06.

• U.S. all wheat production is forecast at 1.536 billion bushels, down 7 million from last month. This is the lowest U.S. wheat production since 1970-1971. The all wheat yield is 47.9 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from last month.

• Winter wheat production was lowered by 39 million bushels to 990 million, almost entirely due to reductions in hard red winter and soft red winter.

• The initial 2026-2027 survey-based production forecasts from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service indicate other spring wheat is less than last year at 475 million bushels on lower harvested area, while durum is also lower at 71 million on reduced harvested area and yields.

• Projected all wheat 2026-2027 ending stocks were reduced 22 million bushels to 722 million, down 22% from last year.

• Production was raised for Russia and Ukraine on continued favorable conditions for their winter wheat crops. Canada’s production was lowered based on Statistics Canada’s Principal Field Crops Area report.

• Global consumption was hiked by 1.6 million tons to 826.2 million, mainly on higher food, seed and industrial use for India, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Somalia.

• World trade is 1.1 million tons higher at 213.1 million on increased exports for Argentina, Russia and Ukraine more than offsetting reduced exports for Canada.

• Projected 2026-2027 global ending stocks were lowered 2.6 million tons to 272.8 million, primarily on reductions for the United States, India, Argentina and Canada.

Corn (2026-2027 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 18.045 billion bushels

Exports: 3.2 billion bushels

Feed, residual: 6.1 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial: 6.955 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.6 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.79 billion bushels

Soybeans (2026-2027 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.83 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 110 million bushels

Exports: 1.66 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.75 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 310 million bushels