Projected ending stocks fall below expectations

CHARLOTTE, Mich. — Old- and new-crop ending stocks for corn and soybeans fell below trade expectations in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s July 10 balance sheet estimates.

“Overall, you would say everything kind of came in friendly for corn with ending stocks lower than what traders were expecting for both old crop and new crop. The same for soybeans to a certain degree,” Angie Setzer, of Consus Ag Consulting, said in a live podcast with copartner Karl Setzer after the report’s release.

“Wheat came in a little bit higher than what traders were expecting, but it’s also low enough, tight enough, and something that we have to watch, especially with the whole conversation about what Russia is going to do or not do” in its war with Ukraine.

What were the changes of note in the 2025-2026 balance sheets?

Angie Setzer: Old-crop corn carryout came in at 2.02 billion. That was 50-some million less than what traders were expecting.

We did see a reduction in (old-crop) ethanol demand from last month, but we did see a significant increase in feed and residual use by about 150 million bushels, up to 6.35 billion bushels. I’m kind of surprised they went that aggressive with feed and residual and left exports unchanged.

For old-crop soybeans, crush was unchanged from last month at 2.65 billion bushels, and exports were bumped up 10 million to 1.52 billion bushels.

What were the highlights for the new corn and soybean crop numbers?

Karl Setzer: New-crop corn carryout came in at 1.79 billion bushels, 100 million bushels under trade estimates, and the 1.96 billion carryout from last month in the rearview mirror.

Angie Setzer: The new acreage number from June 30 put production at 16 billion bushels. New-crop seed and residual was reduced to 6.1 billion, and bumped ethanol back up to 5.6 billion, 50 million higher than what they have it at for 2025-2026.

Exports were increased 50 million bushels to 3.2 billion. That brought carryout lower than what traders were expecting.

In new-crop soybeans, the acreage number was factored in. Crush was unchanged at 2.75 billion.

Exports were increased 30 million bushels to 1.66 billion. Ending stocks were unchanged at 310 million bushels, while the expectations were 330 million.

With China coming in and making some purchases, I had thought you would see USDA increase their export sales number in today’s report, and they did.

What do you think about USDA putting all wheat ending for 2025-2026 at 920 million bushels and the 2026-2027 year-end supplies at 722 million, 8 million below trade expectations and 22 million below the June estimate?

Angie Setzer: USDA did bump wheat yield higher, but lowered harvested area and planted area and took production down as a whole, as expected, but not a significantly.

Basically, the increase in yield helped to offset some of that reduction in area, which would make sense. If you’re abandoning the worst, you’re going to see a bump higher in the number as a whole.

We saw that reduction to beginning wheat stocks as expected. Exports were left unchanged, feed and residual left unchanged and seed usage unchanged to take us to 722 million bushels carryout.

Are the global numbers in the trade’s ballpark?

Karl Setzer: World corn carryout, 275.26 million metric tons, was about 4 million less than trade expectations. The prior report was 281.22 million.

The world soybean carryout was at 124.17 million metric tons. The average trade estimate was 125.17 million. Carryout was 124.88 million in June.

World wheat carryout was at 272.84 million metric tons, and the trade estimate was 273.17 million. Last month’s world wheat carryout was 275.42 million.

Overall, the only thing that jumped out at me, USDA pointed out that the U.S. wheat yield will be the lowest since 2015.