AFBF survey: Majority of U.S. farmers unable to meet fertilizer needs

WASHINGTON — An American Farm Bureau Federation survey found 65.25% of U.S. farmers responding indicated they are unable to afford all their needed fertilizer for 2026.

AFBF surveyed more than 5,700 farmers, both Farm Bureau members and non-members, from every state and Puerto Rico April 3-11, with questions on fertilizer and fuel costs and financial health.

Spring planting decisions depend heavily on access to fertilizer and diesel fuel, both of which have been impacted by geopolitical risks that have disrupted global markets, particularly the war in Iran.

Nitrogen fertilizer prices have risen more than 30% since the conflict in the Middle East escalated, and farm diesel prices have increased 46% since the end of February.

Urea prices are up 47% since the end of February, the largest month-to-month percentage increase in the price of urea.

These increases are occurring when many producers were already facing tight margins for many consecutive years.

According to the survey, 48% of Midwest farmers reported they are unable to afford all the required fertilizer.

Farmers in the Southern region reported the greatest difficulty, with 78% unable to afford all needed fertilizer inputs this season.

Producers in the Northeast and West also reported significant challenges, with 69% and 66%, respectively.

“When producers cannot afford full fertilizer application rates, they may reduce nutrient use or shift acreage decisions, both of which increase the risk of lower yields and reduced production potential in the 2026 crop year,” Faith Parum, AFBF economist, noted in her Market Intel report.

“When farmers cut back on planted acres and fertilizer use, it obviously reduces their yields. To put it simply, less food in the supply chain,” Zippy Duval, AFBF president, said in a media Zoom call.

Pre-Booked

Survey responses indicate the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting U.S. regions differently because crop production systems and fertilizer needs vary.

Midwestern producers, many of whom rely on a corn/soybean rotation, reported higher pre-booking rates, with 67% securing fertilizer earlier in the season.

Pre-booking is more common in the Midwest due to crop rotations, where fertilizer needs are typically larger and purchasing decisions are often made well ahead of planting and before recent price increases.

Producers in other regions are more likely to purchase fertilizer closer to application, increasing exposure to in-season price volatility during periods of market disruption.

Nineteen percent of southern farmers pre-booked fertilizer this crop year. Pre-booking rates are similarly limited in other regions, with just 30% of farmers in the Northeast and 31% in the West securing fertilizer ahead of the season.

Farm Size, Pre-Booking

“Smaller farms reported substantially lower fertilizer pre-booking rates than larger operations across every region, suggesting greater exposure to recent price volatility during the spring purchasing window,” Parum said.

“In the Midwest, 49% of farms with 1 to 499 acres pre-booked fertilizer, compared to 77% of farms with 500 to 2,499 acres and 76% of farms with 2,500-plus acres. The gap was even more pronounced in the Northeast, where only 24% of the smallest farms pre-booked fertilizer, compared to 35% of mid-sized farms and 67% of the largest operations.

“Similar patterns appeared in the South (16% for 1 to 499 acres versus 28% for 2,500-plus acres) and West (25% versus 54%).

“Because smaller farms are less likely to secure fertilizer ahead of the season, they are more exposed to in-season price increases, which can make it harder to afford full application rates and increase the risk of reduced yields and tighter margins in 2026.”

Pre-booking behavior varies significantly across commodities. Nearly half of soybean producers reported pre-booking fertilizer (49%), followed by barley (47%), corn (44%), and wheat (42%) growers.

Lower pre-booking rates among cotton (13%) and peanuts (9%), both crops grown in the southern United States, suggest greater farm exposure to in-season price volatility.

Affordability By Commodity

Fertilizer affordability concerns are even more pronounced when viewed by commodity.

More than 80% of rice, cotton and peanut producers reported they cannot afford all required fertilizer, highlighting the vulnerability of these production systems to input cost shocks.

Over 70% of oats and wheat growers, 68% of soybean producers and 66% of corn growers nationwide said they cannot afford all required fertilizer.

Financial Health

The AFBF survey found 94% of respondents reported their financial situation has worsened or remained the same since last year, while only 6% reported improvement.

“Poor financial conditions going into this growing season impacted planting and purchasing decisions, and as a result rapidly changing fertilizer and fuel market price volatility impacted farmers across the country in different ways, as confirmed by our survey,” Parum said.

“The results speak to the broader picture of a farm economy facing generational headwinds. Most farmers don’t get to set the prices for the things that they grow. We are price-takers, not price-makers. Yet, costs continue to rise on us, whether it be fertilizer, fuel and even equipment costs,” Duvall said.

“It paints a picture of a bleak farm outlook that we’re going to use to tell the people in Congress and this administration, because our farm country needs some help right now, and our American people, our American families are dependent on our farmers to be able to feed our people here at home.”

“These results speak pretty clearly that we’ve got a challenge out in the countryside in terms of farmers being able to afford the fertilizer that they need at this critical juncture and the planting season,” said John Newton, AFBF vice president of public policy and economic analysis.

“With so few farms in the South and other parts of the country that were able to pre-book, the higher fertilizer and diesel prices come on the back of an already challenging farm economy.”

Farmer Perspective

Harrell and Lorenda Overman operate Overman Farms, founded by Harrell’s third-great grandfather in the early 1800s, near Goldsboro in eastern North Carolina. They produce corn, soybeans, sweet potatoes, strawberries, hogs and hay.

“I know media people think that farmers complain all the time, right? That we’ve always got something that’s not right,” Lorenda said during the Zoom call.

“But I don’t know of another profession where the worker and the owner buries hundreds of thousands of dollars in the ground every year and then walking in faith with the Lord and pray over it and become partners with the weatherman and their chemical company and hope that they get enough money out of what they put in the ground to pay back the loan that they’ll get every year to help plant that crop.

“The only safety net farmers have is that crop insurance, which covers 70% of a 10-year average, so that won’t cover all the expenses in one year either. We’re always battling weather, disease and insects, and we are always battling that Chicago Board of Trade market price, too.

“Now we’re looking at extremely low farm gate prices when we sell our crop and extremely high input prices. We don’t get to sell retail, and we don’t get to buy wholesale. We have to to buy retail and sell wholesale.

“This is three years we’ve had record high input prices, and it just got higher the last six or eight weeks.”

The Overmans were not able to pre-book their fertilizer last year “because, frankly, we could not make ends meet. We hoped that prices would go down as the planting season began,” she added.

“When the Straits of Hormuz closed, nitrogen prices went up $100 per ton in that first week.”

Everyone Eats

“We know that 98% of the population has no direct connection to farming, and explaining this fragile state of farm economy is important, especially during this time. It matters to every family in America, because we all eat and we’re all depending on our country to be able to feed our own families here in America, and that is why it’s such a national security issue,” Duvall said.