NCGA report warns of pivotal moment in history

CHESTERFIELD, Mo. — Consolidations from the farm gate through the entire supply chain, combined with inconsistent federal policies, have pushed agriculture toward a pivotal moment in the nation’s history.

The National Corn Growers Association recently released a report, “America’s Crop at Risk: The Future of Corn and Family Farms,” illustrating how far U.S. agriculture has come and how urgent action is needed to secure its future.

The report calls for action to expand demand, modernize regulatory structures, reduce market concentration and foster new opportunities.

“As we celebrate 250 years of American resilience and innovation, we must confront the reality that our farmers, who built this nation’s economic foundation, are in jeopardy,” said NCGA President Jed Bower, a fifth-generation family farmer in south-central Ohio.

“This report makes clear that we are entering one of the most consequential periods in modern agriculture. If we fail to act now, America risks losing not just farms, but the communities, values and economic strength that agriculture has anchored since the country’s founding.”

The report traces the evolution of American corn farming from 1776 to today. Once, 90% to 95% of the U.S. population worked in agriculture.

Today, just 1.3% of Americans farm, even as they continue to produce the food, fuel and fiber that support the entire nation.

At the same time, consolidation, rising input costs, volatile markets and limited competition have accelerated pressures on farm operations.

“This 250th anniversary should be a moment of pride, but also reflection,” said Krista Swanson, NCGA chief economist.

“Farmers have achieved extraordinary gains over two and a half centuries. But productivity doesn’t necessarily equal profitability — not in today’s environment.

“That is why 2026 represents a pivotal moment. The decisions we make now will shape whether the next 250 years include a thriving American farm sector.”

Generational continuity, a defining tradition of American agriculture, is also at risk. In a survey recently conducted by NCGA, only 43% of farmers report having a family successor in place, leaving more than half of farm operations facing uncertain futures.

In its February 2026 update, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated off-farm income accounted for 80% of the average family farm household’s income last year, up from 53% in 1960 and negligible levels prior to the 1920s.

“America’s farmers are committed to carrying on this legacy, but commitment alone isn’t enough. As our nation celebrates its 250th year, we must ensure that we don’t lose the very people who made our country strong in the first place,” Bower said.

Here are some of the report’s highlights:

Consolidation, Farm Costs

According to a report on corporate concentration in agriculture by ETC Group, two companies controlled 40% of the global pesticide market in 2023.

The top four firms held 43% of the global farm machinery market, six companies supply 62% of the world’s potash fertilizer and the United States and three other countries supplied more than 70% of global phosphate fertilizers.

USDA reports that of the 190 companies operating at the inception of the corn seed industry in the 1930s, 105 were still in existence by the 1990s. While a similar number of companies remain today, their relative market power has changed dramatically.

The combined market share of the four largest corn seed companies rose from 59.7% in 1973 to 67% in 1998 and reached 83.4% by 2018-2020. USDA shows the top two firms alone now control 71.6% of the U.S. corn seed market.

The increasing value of proprietary seed traits coincides with this expansion of market power since the 1990s, contributing to rapidly rising seed costs.

Using a three-year rolling average, the cost of seed to plant an acre of corn increased 660% between 1990 and 2025, more than double the 302% increase in the total per-acre cost to grow corn. In that time yields rose 170% and the price farmers can sell corn was up 180%.

Similar patterns of rising market concentration among a declining number of companies are evident across other agricultural input sectors including fertilizer, pesticides and farm machinery, according to the report.

“The true cost of consolidation is not just higher prices, but the loss of farms, as farmers are pushed to either scale up, if possible, or exit the industry. To afford inputs, farms must be big enough to spread rising costs across many acres and qualify for volume discounts, most accessible to the largest farms,” the report said.

When asked what farm changes they would make in 2026 due to the economic environment, the top three responses from farmers were cost-cutting reductions: delay capital purchases (61%), reduce fertilizer (36%) and reduce other inputs (33%). Nearly three-quarters of surveyed farmers are making at least one of these changes in 2026.

Global Competitiveness Grows

The U.S. share of global agricultural production value fell from 14.5% in 1961 to 8.5% in 2024, while China (27.9%) and India (11.4%) now lead.

Although the United States remains the world’s largest agricultural exporter by value — second only to the European Union when aggregated — its competitive position is eroding.

Brazil, in particular, has emerged as both a major export competitor and a nation with expansive land available for future production growth.

“The U.S. has a high standard for agricultural production that is unparalleled amongst competitors — producing a premium product, but at a higher cost — especially when our competitors don’t enforce the same rules,” the report said.

“Labor standards are a clear example. U.S. farm labor protections raise costs, while producers in other major agricultural nations often benefit from lower labor expenses and fewer worker protections.

“Regulatory requirements also create competitive challenges. The U.S. regulatory system for biotechnology products, pesticide registration and other inputs is necessary to ensure safety, but adds years to the length of time it takes a new product to reach the market.

“Government approval processes can be costly and time-consuming for bringing new and improved inputs to the U.S. market. In contrast, competitors such as Brazil are approving new traits as a faster pace, enabling their farmers to access innovations more quickly.”

Land costs further widen the gap. Prime cropland in Brazil, for example, costs roughly one-third to one-half as much as comparable U.S. land, giving foreign producers a major fixed-cost advantage.

Government policies supporting domestic demand also differ sharply. Brazil’s automatic 30% ethanol blend rate is driving strong internal demand, while U.S. farmers have desperately struggled for years — and continue to fight — to reach a voluntary 15% blend.

While politics get in the way of allowing demand markets to function in the United States, competitor nations’ demand grows unchecked.

As global competition intensifies and new value-added markets such as sustainable aviation and maritime fuels emerge, the United States must compete effectively to capture these market opportunities.

At the same time, global agricultural trade policy, including the development of carbon accounting frameworks, are increasingly being shaped in ways that favor, or are more lenient toward, South American competitors.

U.S. agricultural production cannot continue to grow if American farmers are excluded from the same demand opportunities available to their primary competitors.

Many of these pressures mirror the forces that contributed to the decline of U.S. manufacturing over the last 50 years: lower wages, fewer regulations, lower operating costs and stronger government market support elsewhere. Without urgent action, the United States risks surrendering its leadership in global agriculture.

Conclusion

“Corn growers, and American agriculture more broadly, are confronting headwinds rarely seen in the nation’s 250-year history,” the report said.

“The U.S. risks losing another generation of farmers, not for lack of interest, but because market forces are driving an inability to be successful in a profession they desperately wish to pursue.

“A loss of farmers is a loss to America. As farm numbers decline, rural populations and economies continue to dwindle, and the production of essential food, fuel and fiber is placed in the hands of a decreasing number of individuals. This is an unsustainable path for the long-term viability of our nation’s agriculture industry.”

Corn farmers need a different type of support from Congress. While ad-hoc assistance can help during periods of financial stress, it does not create a durable path to success.

Farmers need policies and a regulatory environment that delivers consistent, predictable opportunities for demand and profitability — policies that expand access to emerging markets, strengthen international trade relationships and ensure U.S. producers are not placed at a competitive disadvantage globally.

At the same time, the NCGA recognizes the increasing challenge presented by a federal governing body that passes fewer and fewer pieces of legislation every year.

Corn farmers will continue to advocate for policy solutions that enable access to future demand markets, though federal policies that drive demand for U.S. corn have been and will continue to be hard to pursue.

For this reason, NCGA is increasing its pursuit of new market opportunities beyond traditional policy pathways, with a renewed focus on corn’s role in the bio-economy — where renewable corn-based solutions can replace fossil fuels in everyday products.

A silver bullet for increasing corn demand does not exist; yet, with many smaller, but important, opportunities on the horizon, corn farmers can diversify their demand sources for years to come.