Avoid delay sales due to ad hoc payments: ag economist

BLOOMINGTON, Ill. — Don’t let the prospect of ad hoc government support payments sway crop marketing plans in the current window of opportunities, according to an agricultural economist.

“The one place that you don’t necessarily want to put yourself is where you have a very narrow window to market what’s left of the 2025 crop,” said Joe Janzen at University of Illinois Extension’s Farm Assets Conference on Dec. 12.

“The danger that I see, particularly with the announcement of some ad hoc support payments to the farm sector, is kind of an unwillingness to think about moving bushels in January, February, March, and holding that crop until right before the next harvest, and all that supply is going to come to market at one point in time. That’s likely to lead to relatively poor pricing in that, let’s say, May to July marketing window, when you’ve got to get ready for the crop that’s coming in 2026,” the U of I agricultural economist said.

“The one thing we can do, if we can’t predict prices, is at least spread those sales out over as wide of a window as possible to manage some of that risk.”

Soybean Outlook

Price signals through late December indicate a swing back toward more soybean acres in 2026.

U.S. farmers planted 98.7 million acres of corn and 81.1 million acres of soybeans in 2025 — a much larger gap than usual historically.

“We do plant more corn acres than soybeans, but it’s usually much closer than it was in 2025. Price signals are not necessarily strongly encouraging that, but at least they’re swinging back toward more soybean acres, and I think that’s also built into the limits on soybean price upside,” Janzen said.

U of I’s farmdoc team concurs with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s December forecast that the 2025-2026 season-average soybean will be $10.50 per bushel.

The post-harvest soybean market has a bit volatile, particular with the run-up of prices that began in the second half of October and peaked at just over $11.50 per bushel in mid-November before falling back.

“The difficult part is these slight rallies that we’ve seen in the last month and a half, maybe they’re the result of news, maybe there’s a China export demand story there. We also got through harvest pretty quickly, and there is typically sort of a post-harvest rally. Once the combines stopped rolling and grain gets put in the bin, the market’s going to reward people who pull that out a little bit earlier than they might otherwise,” Janzen said.

Another market-swaying factor in the near future is the record Brazilian soybean crop that’s about to be harvested.

Brazil is projected to harvest 6.5 billion bushels of soybeans in 2026, compared to the previous record of 6.301 billion bushels in 2025.

“The global balance sheet is filling up,”Janzen said.

USDA forecasts soybean exports of 1.635 billion bushels in the current marketing year, while farmdoc plugged in 1.5 billion bushels of exports in its balance sheet. USDA projects ending stocks of 290 million bushels, and farmdoc projects ending soybean supplies of 377 million bushels on lower production and exports.

“We are going to see the swing back to more soybean acres in 2026 that’s going to fill up the soybean balance sheet. I think there’s some reason to be maybe skeptical, even of the export number that USDA has for soybeans, given the story of where we’re at with China trade,” Janzen said.

Corn Outlook

Corn prices are expected to grind sideways in the first half of 2026 due to continued high supply levels.

“The March futures price is around $4.50 per bushel and has been there for a long time with some wiggles here and there for most of last year,” Janzen said.

USDA and farmdoc anticipate the 2025-2026 season-average corn price of $4 per bushel. USDA had ending stocks of 2.019 billion bushels as of the December estimate, while farmdoc’s year-end balance estimate is 2.132 billion bushels on slightly lower production, but also lower feed use and exports.

“USDA’s balance sheet has stocks-to-use levels (12.5%) that are consistent with a corn price at the farm gate right around $4, and I don’t see any reason to deviate from that,” Janzen said.

“If anything, I think USDA might reduce its yield estimates going forward, that they’re still at a very high estimate for yield that a lot of people in the trade think is too high. But I think we’ll see corresponding reductions in use that kind of keep us around the price levels that we’re at.

“USDA is building in a healthy level of production; 95 million acres is their long-run corn acreage estimate for 2026. That might be high, but even if you reduce that number, you’re still looking at a pretty substantial carryout. They have pretty optimistic expectations for feed use (6.1 billion bushels) and exports (3.2 billion bushels) going forward into 2026.

“We’re remain at stock levels that would be burdensome that keep corn prices in that $4 range.”

Closing Thoughts

Futures and basis corn and soybean prices have moved off of the harvest lows.

“It’s really hard to sort out to what extent the post-harvest rally was export-news-driven and how much of it just was high inventories being held back by the U.S farmer and the market needing to rally to pull some of that grain into the supply chain,” Janzen said.

“How much is that trade optimism driving the soybean rally? Well, I think the last couple days (in mid-December) have suggested a good portion of that was maybe some misplaced (China trade) optimism.

“The current volatility in calendar spreads suggests some potential for a price volatility in 2026. The situation is much less certain with that volatility and spreads suggesting we’re not sure. We’re not slamming the brakes on marketing and saying, hold as much as you can. So, I think that puts the farmer in maybe a slightly more precarious position.”