USDA hikes production forecasts

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s crop production report included increases in its corn and soybean production forecasts.

Based on Oct. 1 conditions, USDA estimated corn production of nearly 16.034 billion bushels, the second highest production for grain on record in the United States, compared to 16.964 last year.

The nation’s average yield is projected at 181.2 bushels per acre, 2.7 higher than last month’s estimate and 5.3 lower than last year’s record.

The 2026 area harvested for grain is forecast at 88.506 million acres, unchanged from the previous estimate and down 3% from last year’s 90.948 million.

As of Oct. 4, 23% of the nation’s corn acreage had been harvested, 4% behind the five-year average.

U.S. soybean production is forecast at a record of nearly 4.562 billion bushels, up 1% from last month’s estimate and 7% higher than the 4.261 billion produced in 2025.

USDA forecasts the nation’s soybean yield at a record 53.1 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last year’s final estimate and a 0.3 bushels increase from last month.

Acreage harvested for soybeans is forecast at 85.881 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but up 7% from last year’s 80.417.

U.S. soybean harvest was 25% complete as of Oct. 4, 8 percentage points behind the five-year average.

‘I’ States Corn

USDA lowered Illinois’ average corn yield by 1 bushel from the September forecast to 208 bushels per acre, 6 below 2025.

The state’s 10.95 million harvested corn acres are projected to produce nearly 2.278 billion bushels, compared to just over 2.343 billion last year from the same total acreage.

Indiana’s corn yield average was unchanged from last month at 200 bushels per acre, 4 less than a year ago.

Harvested acres are estimated at 5.16 million, 80,000 less than in 2025. If realized, production is projected at 1.032 billion bushels after producing nearly 1.069 billion last year.

A 219 bushels per acre average yield was unchanged from last month for Iowa and is 9 bushels above 2025.

Iowa’s harvested acres of 12.8 million is anticipated to produce 2.803 billion bushels. The state harvested 13.15 million corn acres last year, producing nearly 2.762 billion bushels.

‘I’ States Soybeans

USDA increased Illinois’ soybean yield average to 68 bushels per acre, 2 higher than the September estimate and 5.5 better than last year.

The Prairie State’s projected 10.43 million harvested acres is estimated to produce 709.24 million bushels. In 2025, Illinois produced 639.375 million bushels from 10.23 million acres.

Based on Oct. 1 conditions, Indiana’s soybeans are projected to average 63 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and 3.5 bushels above 2025.

The state’s anticipated 5.63 million harvested acres is estimated to produce 354.69 million bushels, compared to 323.085 million bushels from 5.43 million acres last year.

Iowa’s average soybean yield estimate as lowered 1 bushel from last month to 63 bushels per acre, 0.5 below 2025.

USDA pencilled in a total production of 612.99 million bushels from 9.73 million harvested acres. The state’s farmers hauled in 595.63 million bushels from 9.38 million soybean acres a year ago.

Survey Procedures

Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between Sept. 24 and Oct. 5 to gather information on expected yield as of Oct 1, according to USDA.

The objective yield surveys for corn and soybeans were conducted in the major producing states that usually account for about 75% of U.S. production.

Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop.

In all cases, plant counts are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears or pods and their weight.

The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield.

The plots are visited starting in September and are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed.

After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet and personal interviewers.

Approximately 8,300 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields.

Revision Policy

End-of-season estimates for all other row crops are published in the Annual Crop Production Summary in January.

Revisions to planted acres will only be made when either special survey data, administrative data, such as Farm Service Agency program “sign up” data, or remote sensing data are available.

Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last forecast.