USDA tweaks corn, soybean production estimates

WASHINGTON — Less corn and a few more soybeans were forecast in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s crop production report released Sept. 11.

The nation’s corn production is forecast at 15.8 billion bushels, 1% lower than the August forecast and 7% lower than last year. If realized, this would be the second-highest production for grain on record for the United States.

Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, the U.S. corn yield is forecast to average 178.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from the previous forecast and 8 bushels lower than last year’s record-high 186.5 bushels per acre.

Total corn planted area, at 96.8 million acres, is up slightly from the previous estimate, but down 2% from 2025. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 88.5 million acres, down less than 1% from the previous forecast and 3% below last year.

U.S. soybeans are projected to average 52.8 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last month, but 0.2 lower than last year’s final estimate of 53. If the estimate reaches fruition, it would be the second-highest yield in record for the nation.

Total soybean planted area, at 86.9 million acres, is less than 1% above the previous estimate and up 7% from the previous year.

U.S. acreage harvested for soybeans is forecast at 85.9 million acres, up less than 1% from the previous forecast 7% higher than last year.

‘I’ State Corn

Iowa, along with Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee, are projected to have record corn yields, with an estimated average of 219 bushels per acre, 3 bushels higher than last month and 9 above 2025. Iowa’s 12.8 million harvested acres is projected to produce over 2.803 billion bushels of corn.

USDA reduced the anticipated Illinois corn yield average by 3 bushels from last month to 209 bushels per acre after hitting 214 last year. The 10.95 million harvested acres would produce nearly 2.289 billion bushels.

Indiana’s projected average corn yield was lowered by 6 bushels from last month to 200 bushels per acre, 4 below last year. If realized, the state’s 5.16 million harvested acres would produce 1.032 billion bushels.

‘I’ State Soybeans

Illinois’ soybean yield average was dropped by a bushel from August to 66 bushels per acre, 3.5 higher than 2025. Harvested acres of 10.43 million is expected to produce 688.38 million bushels.

The USDA hiked Indiana’s projected average yield to 63 bushels per acre, 1 higher than last month and 3.5 more than a year ago. The resulting production would be 354.69 million bushels harvested from 5.63 million acres.

A 64-bushel average yield is projected for Iowa, a 2-bushel increase from last month and one-half bushel higher than last year. USDA anticipates 9.73 million bushels for a total production of 622.72 million bushels.

Survey Procedure

Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between Aug. 25 and Sept. 7 to gather information on expected yield as of Sept. 1.

Farm operators selected for the objective yield survey were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected fields for the objective yield survey of corn, cotton and soybeans. The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop.

The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield.

The plots are visited starting in September and are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed.

After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet and personal interviews.

Approximately 7,600 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields.