USDA hikes price expectations

WASHINGTON — With lower projected year-end stocks, the U.S. Department of Agriculture bumped up price expectations in its Sept. 11 supply and demand estimates report.

Corn: USDA raised its season-average price projection for 2026-2027 by 30 cents to $4.80 per bushel.

• Projected beginning stocks for 2026-2027 are 23 million bushels lower to 1.922 billion based primarily on a larger export forecast for 2025-2026.

• Domestic corn production for 2026-2027 is forecast at 15.8 billion bushels, down 213 million from last month on a 2.2-bushel reduction in yield to 178.5 bushels per acre and a fractional decrease in harvested area to 88.5 million.

• Total U.S. corn use for 2026-2027 is forecast down 150 million bushels to 16.18 billion.

• Feed and residual use was lowered 150 million bushels to 5.95 billion.

• Exports are unchanged at 3.275 billion bushels despite lower production, reflecting expectations of steady demand.

• With declining supply only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks were lowered 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion.

• Foreign corn production is forecast lower with decreases for India, Kenya and Russia that are partially offset by increases for the European Union and other countries. India corn production was reduced, with reduced area harvested and below-normal rainfall lowering yield prospects.

• Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2026-2027 include smaller corn exports for Brazil on higher domestic use for ethanol production and increased barley exports for Australia on larger production.

• Foreign corn ending stocks are cut, mostly reflecting a reduction for India that is only partly offset by increases for Zambia, Ukraine and Brazil.

• World corn ending stocks, at 272.1 million tons, are down 2.6 million from last month’s projection.

Soybeans: The 2026-2027 season-average price is forecast at $14 per bushel, up 60 cents from last month.

• Soybean production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million from the August estimate with higher harvested area and yield.

• Harvested area was increased by 100,000 acres from the August forecast.

• The soybean yield of 52.8 bushels per acre is up 0.1 bushels from last month.

• The crush forecast was unchanged while the soybean export forecast was hiked by 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion.

• Ending stocks are projected at 310 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.

• The soybean meal projected price was increased $30 to $340 per short ton and the soybean oil price is unchanged at 70 cents per pound.

• Global soybean production was increased 100,000 tons to 442.3 million on higher production for the United States and Canada. Partly offsetting is lower production for India and the EU.

• Global soybean exports for 2026-2027 were increased with higher shipments for the United States, Canada, Benin and Ukraine. Imports were raised mainly for the EU, India and Japan.

• Global soybean ending stocks were reduced 200,000 tons to 124 million mainly on lower stocks for the United States.

Wheat: Based on prices reported to date and expectations going forward, the season-average farm price was increased by 20 cents to $6.40 per bushel.

• All of the aggregate supply and use categories for 2026-2027 U.S. wheat were unchanged this month. However, there are offsetting by-class changes for exports.

• White wheat exports were increased by 20 million bushels and hard red winter and hard red spring exports were lowered 15 million and 5 million, respectively. This change is based on reported sales and shipments of these wheat classes to date and their prices relative to key competitors.

• Global wheat supplies are projected up 3.5 million tons to 1.103 billion mainly on higher production in several major exporting countries. Australia supplies were raised 3 million tons to 31 million on the latest Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences quarterly report and very favorable conditions in both South Australia and Victoria, with abundant precipitation and recent improved moisture conditions in Western Australia.

• Canada’s supplies were hiked by 1 million tons to 36 million on continued widespread favorable conditions in the Prairie Provinces.

• Ukraine’s wheat supplies were raised 600,000 tons to 26 million on a record yield as the harvest nears completion.

• Global consumption was increased 500,000 tons to 826.8 million, as higher feed and residual use more than offsets lower food, seed and industrial use.

• Russia and Ukraine exports were lowered based on weak August shipments as the war in the Black Sea region hampers logistics.

• Projected 2026-2027 global ending stocks were raised 3 million tons to 276.3 million mainly on increases for Russia, Australia and Ukraine.

Corn (2026-2027 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 17.747 billion bushels

Exports: 3.275 billion bushels

Feed, residual: 5.95 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial: 6.955 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.6 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.567 billion bushels

Soybeans (2026-2027 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.885 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 111 million bushels

Exports: 1.685 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.78 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 310 million bushels