Minimal surprises in new USDA balance sheets

CHARLOTTE, Mich. — Most of the U.S. crop balance sheet estimates were within the range of expectations, but questions remain on global side of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report.

Angie Setzer and Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting gave a rundown of the latest USDA data in a live podcast when the crop production and supply and demand reports were released Sept. 11.

What were among the highlights of USDA’s crop balance sheets for 2026-2027 and how did they compare to trade expectations?

Angie Setzer: Wheat carryout was unchanged at 717 million bushels. Overall, looking at the wheat balance sheet, they copied and pasted.

Corn carryout came in at 1.567 billion bushels. USDA reduced yield to 178.5 bushels per acre, just a little bit higher than what the trade was expecting, at 178.2. Harvested corn acres were lowered from 88.592 million last month to 88.506 million.

Beginning corn stocks were trimmed ever so slightly to 1.922 billion from 1.945 billion last month. Exports were unchanged. Feed and residual were reduced 150 million bushels. Ethanol was unchanged.

And corn carryout was lowered 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion, about 40 million higher than what traders were expecting.

On the soybean side, carryout came in at 310 million bushels. Old crop was left unchanged, and the yield at 52.8 bushels per acre, up 0.1 from last month. The trade estimate was 52.5.

Soybean harvested area was increased by 100,000 to 85.881 million. That bumped up production by about 26 million bushels.

Crush was left unchanged, while increasing exports by 25 million bushels and taking that carryout down to 310 million bushels. The average trade ending stocks estimate was 298 million.

What were among the key numbers on the global balance sheets?

Karl Setzer: World corn carryout at 272.1 million metric tons was expected. However, that’s down 2.5 million from last month.

Wheat carryout came in higher than expected at 276.29 million metric tons, 3 million metric tons more than the trade expected and 3 million more metric tons than last month.

Angie Setzer: That 3 million metric tons came strictly from Russia. They reduced Russian exports 3 million metric tons and bumped their ending stocks up 3 million.

They took Ukraine wheat exports down by about 500,000 metric tons and took their ending stocks up by 1.5 million.

Karl Setzer: World soybean ending stocks was at 124.02 million metric tons, and the trade was expecting 123.06 million. However, that was down 200,000 metric tons from last month.

The number that jumps out at me is that Brazil corn crop. We’ve got to keep an eye on that one. We’re starting to get some disputes for corn and soybeans.

USDA kept it at 186 million metric tons for Brazil soybeans. We’re starting to see some 180s coming around. I was wondering if that number for Brazil would change, but it did not.

Angie Setzer: Eduardo Vanin from Agrinvest brought that up in a call yesterday. Their number is toward that 180 million metric tons.

He had mentioned that the available supply of old-crop soybeans out of Brazil is astonishingly tight and he doesn’t think they’re going to meet their export target. He thinks there’s going to be some issues there potentially.

My argument right now is I still think USDA is underestimating soybean export demand out of the U.S., and I think they’re probably tip-toeing on it.

I think we’ll be able to exceed this target and I know we can’t reduce crush. I just think, long-term wise, we’ll probably see U.S. soybean carryout reduced further.

Anything else that you would like to add?

Karl Setzer: The only number that really jumps at me is the Argentine wheat crop. USDA held it at 27.89 million metric tons for old crop and new crop is down to about 21 million metric tons.

That’s still above what we’re seeing out of Rosario and Buenos Aires grains exchanges. So, there’s a little more optimism in the USDA wheat crop for Argentina than what Argentina has.

Even with all the changes in this report, there was nothing earth-shattering. We trade these numbers, give us 15, 20 minutes and we’re back to geopolitics, harvest and weather.

Angie Setzer: There are a lot of changes left to be discovered as to how we’re going to solve the global balance sheet going forward in a lot of different ways — especially if we were to see China step in and start purchasing grains at any point, if we do see a follow-through on some of this talk on additional agricultural purchases, and that’ll be in a couple weeks.