Allendale survey finds less corn, soybeans

MCHENRY, Ill. — A farmer survey across 25 states projects slightly smaller U.S. corn and soybean crops than the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August estimates.

Allendale Inc., a commodity brokerage and analysis firm, found in its 37th annual nationwide producer survey an average corn yield of 178.7 bushels per acre, 2 bushels below the recent USDA estimate, and a soybean yields of 52.6 bushels per acre, just one-tenth below USDA.

Using USDA’s Aug. 12 harvested acres estimate of 88.592 million acres, the new survey yield would put the nation’s corn production at 15.833 billion bushels, compared to USDA’s 16.013 billion. The United States harvested 17.021 billion bushels of corn in 2025.

On the soybean side, the projected 85.781 million harvested acres would produce 4.515 billion bushels, based on the Allendale yield estimate. USDA’s August yield would produce 4.519 billion bushels, compared to 4.262 billion last year.

The survey results are projections of what USDA’s September crop production report will find.

Regional weakness in corn was concentrated in parts of the western Corn Belt.

South Dakota’s corn yield is projected at 145 bushels per acre, 6 below USDA’s estimate and 26 lower than 2025. The survey found Kansas had a yield average of 125 bushels per acre, 20 less than a year ago. Nebraska also came in lower than last year, averaging 188, 6 below 2025.

Kansas and South Dakota also had sharp year-over-year declines in soybean yields. Kansas is projected at 37 bushels per acre, 11.5 below last year, and South Dakota’s 40-bushel average is 7 lower than a year ago.

‘I’ States

Allendale’s average yield estimates for Illinois corn and soybeans were 205 and 65 bushels per acre, respectively. USDA estimated 212 and 67 in its August crop production report. The state averaged 214 and 62.5 in 2025.

The survey also had lower estimates in Indiana than the USDA’s projections with corn coming in a 198 bushels per acre and soybeans averaging 61. The August estimate from USDA was 206 for corn and 62 for soybeans. Statewide averages a year ago were 204 and 59.5.

Iowa’s corn is projected to average 215 bushels per acre, 1 below the August crop production report and 5 higher than last year. Allendale’s survey found Iowa’s soybeans to average 60 bushels per acre, 2 below USDA and 3.5 less than 2025.

Survey Accuracy

The survey has been within 1 bushel per acre of USDA’s September soybean report in eight of 15 recent years and has been within 2 bushels in 11 of 15 recent years, according to Rich Nelson, Allendale chief strategist.

This survey has been within 2 bushels per acre of USDA’s September corn report in 11 of 15 recent years.

Surveys were conducted directly by Allendale brokers, its website and social media platforms in the last half of August.

These estimated were based on producing calculated yields in 25 states. USDA’s crop production estimates were used for the smaller-producing states outside the Midwest.

Marketing

The survey also asked producers about their current marketing.

Respondents reported 29% of new-crop corn and 32% of new-crop soybeans have been sold, nearly double last year’s pace.