U.S. wheat yield forecast lowest since 2015

WASHINGTON — Winter wheat production continued its downward projections in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s July 10 production report.

USDA lowered domestic winter wheat production by 4% from last month to an estimated 990 million bushels, down 29% from 2025.

As of July 1, the U.S. average yield is forecast at 46.7 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month and 8.2 bushels lower than last year’s average yield of 54.9 bushels per acre. If realized, the U.S. yield would be the lowest since 2015.

Illinois wheat is forecasted to average a record 88 bushels an acre, up 2 bushels from the June estimate and matching the 2025 statewide average yield.

The 620,000 harvested acres are projected to produce 54.56 million bushels compared to 61.6 million a year ago from 700,000 acres.

USDA put Indiana’s winter wheat average at 85 bushels per acre, down 2 from last month and 4 lower than in 2025.

The projected harvest area of 230,000 acres is estimated to produce 19.55 million bushels. Indiana had 10,000 more harvested acres last year, producing 21.36 million bushels.