Allendale survey indicates a drop of 5.1 million corn acres

MCHENRY, Ill. — A commodity brokerage firm’s farmer survey indicates a shift toward more soybean acres in 2026.

Allendale’s 25th annual acreage survey is based on responses across the 26 primary corn, wheat and soybean production states and was conducted March 2-13.

The survey projects 93.678 million corn acres, down 5.11 million from last year, and 85.659 million soybean planted acres, a 4.444 million-acre increase. All wheat planting were 44.87 million acres, 451,000 lower than in 2025.

The survey indicated the largest decline came in hard red spring wheat which is 312,000 acres lower to 9.678 million acres due to quality issues the last few season that led to price discounts. Winter wheat acres are estimated at 33.092 million.

“Our numbers as far as North Dakota basically said they’re dropping out of wheat, and dropping out of wheat very aggressively and, as far as our survey discussion, they’re moving into soybeans and, believe it or not, actually moving into a little bit of corn, as well,” said Rich Nelson, Allendale chief economist.

He added that the largest soybean planted area increase was anticipated in the western Corn Belt.

“We saw some areas in some specific regions of some states in the western Corn Belt where a region within a state might be making as much as a 15% or maybe 18% movement away from corn into soybeans. Over in the eastern Corn Belt almost everybody’s doing a relatively slow, light and consistent movement,” he said.

The survey was conducted in the early days of the Iran war, so decisions may change by planting time.

Nelson added planting decisions are based on several factors.

“It certainly was rotation. I probably put it at maybe 40% of the general story. I would probably put another 20% being concerns about financial burdens here with this last crop we just harvested. And I put the remainder on the fertilizer discussion,” he said.

Production Potentials

Allendale plugged in what production totals could be using trend yields with the acreage survey results.

Corn production is estimated at 15.693 billion bushels, and 183 bushels per acre trend yield, 62 million bushels below USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum in February.

Soybean production would increase to 4.528 billion bushels, and a 53.5 bushels per acre trend yield, compared to USDA’s 4.45 billion bushel projection at outlook.

Wheat is projected down just 4 million bushels to 1.856 billion bushels, at 50.8 bushels per acre, according to Allendale’s estimates.

Marketing Trends

The survey also tracked the progress of producer crop sales, comparing current activity to 10-year averages.

For corn, producers are currently 69% sold on old crop, matching the 10-year average, while new crop sales are at 9%, compared to the 12% average.

For soybeans, producers have been more aggressive with old crop sales, reaching 83% sold versus the 80% 10-year average. However, new crop soybean sales are also behind the pace at 11%, compared to the 15% 10-year average.