Minimal moves in USDA supply, demand estimates

WASHINGTON — Other than a nickel increase in the projected average wheat price and tweaks in the global supplies, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s crop balance sheets were mostly unchanged in the March estimates.

Here are the highlights.

Corn: USDA kept the season-average price received by producers at $4.10 per bushel.

• This month’s 2025-2026 U.S. corn supply and demand outlook was unchanged relative to last month with ending stocks at 2.127 billion bushels, compared to 1.551 billion estimated for 2024-2025.

• Ukraine’s 2025-2026 corn production estimate was increased from 35.58 million metric tons last month to 37.02 million based on the latest information from the State Statistics Service.

• Brazil corn production was hiked by 1 million metric tons from last month to 132 million on an increase for first crop area.

• Argentine production was lowered from 53 million to 52 million metric tons as dryness during February reduced yield prospects.

• For 2024-2025, based on observed shipments to date, Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2026 are higher while Argentina’s was reduced.

• Corn imports for 2025-2026 were increased for Vietnam and the Philippines, but lowered for India.

• Brazil’s corn ending stocks increased from 4.37 million metric tons last month to 6.6 million in March, while Argentina’s ending stocks dropped from 6.57 million to 5.77 million metric tons.

• Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, reflecting increases for Brazil, Ukraine and India that are partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Global corn ending stocks, at 292.8 million tons, are up 3.8 million from last month.

Soybeans: A $10.20 per bushel 2025-2026 season-average projection from last month remained for the March report.

• Soybean imports into the United States were increased by 5 million bushels to 25 million reflecting trade to date.

• Domestic crush was hiked by 5 million bushels, driven by higher soybean meal domestic use.

• Due to a lower soybean oil extraction rate, soybean oil production is slightly lower than last month despite the higher crush forecast.

• Soybean oil domestic use was marginally lower with lower soybean oil for biofuel use mostly offset by higher food, feed and other industrial use. Soybean oil for biofuel use was lowered 800 million pounds to 14 billion and soybean oil ending stocks were revised slightly higher.

• U.S. soybean ending stocks were unchanged from last month at 350 million bushels.

• The soybean meal price was increased by $5 from last month to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is projected at 55 cents per pound, up 2 cents from February.

• Argentina production was lowered 0.5 million tons to 48 million on a lower yield partly offset by higher area. Ukraine production was reduced 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million on lower area.

• China imported 12.55 million metric tons of soybeans in January and February, the smallest volume for the same period in seven years.

• Global soybean ending stocks were lowered by 0.2 million tons mainly on lower stocks for India and Ukraine.

Wheat: The season-average farm price was hiked by a nickel from last month to $4.95 per bushel.

• There were no changes this month for the 2025-2026 U.S. wheat supply and use categories.

• The 2025-2026 global outlook this month projects larger supplies and consumption, but reduces trade and ending stocks.

• Global supplies rose by 0.2 million tons, mainly on increased output for Ukraine and Kazakhstan that is partly offset by lower production for Australia.

• Production for Australia is down by 1 million tons, with the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences report showing a nearly complete harvest at 36 million — its third highest on record.

• Global consumption was increased 0.7 million tons to a record 824.8 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for the European Union.

• Exports from Argentina expanded by 1.5 million tons to a record 19.5 million, as its wheat remains the world’s lowest-priced among major exporters.

• Projected 2025-2026 global ending stocks were lowered by 0.6 million tons to 277 million, but remain a five-year high.

Corn (2025-2026 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 18.597 billion bushels

Exports: 3.3 billion bushels

Feed, residual: 6.2 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial: 6.97 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.6 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.127 billion bushels

Soybeans (2025-2026 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.612 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 112 million bushels

Exports: 1.575 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.57 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 350 million bushels