USDA report addresses China’s what ifs

WASHINGTON — An atypical note by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on what could have happened if China purchased more soybeans was featured in the supply and demand estimates report Feb. 10.

Here are the highlights of the balance sheet reports that included record U.S. corn exports.

Soybeans: U.S. 2025-2026 season-average price was unchanged from last month at $10.20 per bushel.

• China is reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans. Global soybean import demand is nearly unchanged from last month, so therefore if China bought more from the United States, global soybean exports will likely be shifted with more U.S. shipments to China and less to other markets.

• U.S. new crop soybean supply and use projections are unchanged this month.

• Production for Brazil was hiked by 2 million tons to 180 million on higher area and yield, reflecting beneficial weather throughout the season and state-level reporting. Brazil produced 171.5 million metric tons last year. Brazil soybean area is a record 49.4 million hectares after last year’s 47.4 million. The five-year average is 44 million hectares.

• Production for Paraguay was increased 0.5 million tons to 11.5 million on favorable rainfall over the season.

• Soybean crush was raised for Brazil and Paraguay driven by higher global soybean meal demand, particularly for the European Union based on import pace to date.

• Similar to the United States, growth in EU oilseed meal demand grew substantially in 2024-2025 due to competitive prices.

• Global soybean ending stocks were increased by 1.1 million tons to 125.5 million on higher stocks for Brazil.

Corn: USDA kept the projected season-average price received by producers at $4.10 per bushels.

• U.S. exports were raised 100 million bushels to a record 3.3 billion reflecting sales and shipments to date. Export sales and inspection data continued to show robust foreign demand during January and imply total shipments during the September-January period will most likely exceed 1.3 billion bushels.

• With no supply changes and use rising, corn ending stocks are down 100 million bushels to 2.1 billion.

• Global coarse grain production for 2025-2026 were virtually unchanged at 1.590 billion tons. The foreign coarse grain supply and use outlook is also essentially unchanged relative to last month.

• Foreign corn production is down fractionally as a decline for Mexico is mostly offset by an increase for the EU.

• Foreign corn ending stocks are higher reflecting increases for Ukraine and Iran partly offset by a decline for Mexico.

• Global corn stocks, at 289 million tons, are down 1.9 million.

Wheat: The projected 2025-2025 season-average farm price remains at $4.90 per bushel.

• Domestic use was lowered on reduced food use as indicated by the NASS flour milling products report, issued on Feb. 2. This reduction is partially offset by a fractional increase in seed use.

• Ending stocks were raised to 931 million bushels, 9% higher than last year and the largest since 2019-2020.

• Global supplies are projected to decline 0.6 million tons to nearly 1.102 billion on the combination of reduced beginning stocks and lower production.

• Argentina’s wheat production was hiked to a record 27.8 million tons, but this increase is more than offset by lower production for Turkey and Mongolia.

• Global 2025-2026 consumption increased by 0.2 million tons to 824.1 million, on higher food, seed and industrial use for several countries more than offsetting lower feed and residual use mostly for Canada and Turkey.

• World trade is 2.2 million tons higher at 222 million on greater exports for Argentina and Canada more than offsetting reduced EU exports. Argentina’s exports are raised 2.0 million tons to a record 18 million on robust December and January shipments and highly competitive export prices.

• Projected 2025-2026 global ending stocks are reduced 0.7 million tons to 277.5 million, but remain at a five-year high with significant year-to-year increases for all major exporters.

Corn (2025-2026 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 18.597 billion bushels

Exports: 3.3 billion bushels

Feed, residual: 6.2 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial: 6.97 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.6 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.127 billion bushels

Soybeans (2025-2026 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.607 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 112 million bushels

Exports: 1.575 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.57 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 350 million bushels