Balance sheets shift to higher stocks

WASHINGTON — A combination of higher beginning stocks and larger than expected production pushed up crop ending stocks in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s balance sheets.

Here are the details of the agricultural supply and demand estimates report issued Jan. 12.

Corn: USDA raised the projected 2025-2026 season-average price by a dime to $4.10 per bushel.

• Corn production is estimated at 17 billion bushels, up 269 million from the previous estimate on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million-acre rise in harvested area.

• Since the July 2025 supply and demand report, harvested area has surged 4.5 million acres. Notably, the record crop in 2025 exceeds the prior high set in 2023 by 1.7 billion bushels.

• Total corn use was hiked by 90 million bushels to 16.4 billion.

• Feed and residual use is up 100 million bushels to 6.2 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the grain stocks report.

• Food, seed and industrial use is down slightly reflecting reductions in the amount of corn used for glucose, dextrose and high fructose corn syrup.

• With supply rising more than use, corn stocks are boosted 198 million bushels to 2.2 billion.

• Foreign corn production is forecast higher with an increase for China, where production was raised to a record 301.2 million tons based on the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

• Global corn stocks, at 290.9 million tons, were increased by 11.8 million.

Soybeans: The season-average price was lowered by 30 cents from last month to $10.20 per bushel.

• The 30-cent reduction reflects USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service prices during the first quarter of the marketing year and expectations for future marketings and prices.

• U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.3 billion bushels, up 9 million from last month, led by increases for Kansas, Kentucky and Minnesota. Harvested area is estimated at 80.4 million acres, up 0.1 million. Yield was unchanged from last month at 53 bushels per acre.

• U.S. soybean supply for 2025-2026 was increased by 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production.

• Soybean crush for the current marketing year was raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports.

• Soybean meal and soybean oil extraction rates were also revised based on early-season data. Soybean oil used for biofuel was lowered 0.7 billion pounds to 14.8 billion on lower-than-expected use to date and strong use of tallow as a feedstock in recent months.

• U.S. soybean exports were revised 60 million bushels lower to 1.575 billion on higher production and exports for Brazil.

• Domestic soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, up 60 million from December.

• Global soybean production was increased 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million, reflecting higher crops for Brazil and the United States, but lower output for China.

• Brazil soybean production was raised 3 million tons to 178 million on beneficial weather conditions in the center-west during the peak of the growing season. Further, positive early-season conditions and consistent rainfall in the south of Brazil also bolsters yield prospects, especially compared to previous years when the region faced drought.

• Soybean crush and soybean meal exports were hiked for Brazil and the United States and pairs with higher soybean meal imports for the European Union. EU soybean crush and soybean imports are lowered on higher imported soybean meal supplies.

• Global soybean exports for 2025-2026 were lowered 0.1 million tons to 187.6 million as higher exports for Brazil are offset by lower U.S. shipments.

• Global ending stocks are increased 2 million tons to 124.4 million, mainly on higher stocks for the United States and Brazil.

Wheat: USDA lowered the projected season-average prices by 10 cents to $4.90 per bushel.

• Beginning stocks were increased 4 million bushels on stock revisions in the NASS grain stocks report.

• Feed and residual use was reduced 20 million bushels to 100 million based on smaller-than-expected first quarter disappearance and residual indicated in the same report.

• USDA lowered seed use by 1 million bushels to 61 million, partly based on the NASS winter wheat and canola seedings report.

• Exports were unchanged at 900 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class changes.

• Projected ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8% from the previous year.

• Global supplies were increased 4.3 million tons to just over 1.102 billion primarily on higher production for Argentina and Russia that more than offsets a reduction for Turkey.

• With over 90% of the wheat harvest in Argentina complete, the production forecast was raised 3.5 million tons to a record 27.5 million, nearly 50% larger than the previous year.

• The production forecast for Russia was also increased, up 2 million tons to 89.5 million based on higher preliminary yields reported by Rosstat.

• Projected global ending stocks are up 3.4 million tons to 278.3 million, primarily on increases for Russia and Argentina.

Corn (2025-2026 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 18.597 billion bushels

Exports: 3.2 billion bushels

Feed, residual: 6.2 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial: 6.97 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.6 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.227 billion bushels

Soybeans (2025-2026 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.607 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 112 million bushels

Exports: 1.575 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.57 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 350 million bushels