USDA releases delayed crop balance sheets

WASHINGTON — With limited data, in some cases, the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Nov. 14 released its first World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report since September.

“Due to lapse in government funding from Oct. 1 through Nov. 12, some U.S. data sources that are typically used were not available for the November 2025 WASDE. Changes to the U.S. balance sheets continue to reflect all U.S. government data available at the time of publication, but this month, in some cases, that information was limited,” the USDA noted in the report.

Here are the highlights.

Corn: The season-average price received by producers was increased by a dime from the September estimate to $4 per bushel.

• Beginning stocks are 207 million bushels higher based on the Sept. 30 grain stocks report.

• Corn production is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, down 62 million from September on a 0.7-bushel reduction in the U.S. average yield to 186 bushels per acre.

• Harvested area for grain was unchanged at 90 million acres.

• Total use is up 100 million bushels reflecting a higher export forecast.

• Exports were raised 100 million bushels to 3.1 billion reflecting shipments to date. Inspection data imply exports set a monthly record during September and again in October.

• With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion.

• Global coarse grain production for 2025-2026 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1.576 billion tons. This month’s 2025-2026 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, virtually unchanged trade, and smaller ending stocks.

• Foreign corn ending stocks were reduced, mostly reflecting a decline for China that is partly offset by increases for Argentina, Mexico and Ukraine.

• Global corn ending stocks are down fractionally to 281.3 million tons.

Soybeans: USDA increased the season-average price by 50 cents from the last report to $10.50 per bushel for 2025-2026.

• U.S. oilseed production for 2025-2026 is projected to reach 125.8 million tons, a decrease of 1 million from the previous estimate. The reduction is attributed to lower soybean production, although it is partially offset by higher peanut and cottonseed output.

• Soybean production in the United States is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 48 million from September’s report, on lower yields.

• The nation’s average soybean yield is projected down 0.5 bushels to 53 bushels per acre.

• Soybean supplies are projected to be 61 million bushels lower than the September forecast, due to lower beginning stocks from the Sept. 30 grain stocks report and reduced production.

• U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.64 billion bushels, down 50 million from the previous forecast due to lower supplies and higher exports by Brazil and Argentina. In September, Argentina temporarily reduced export taxes leading to an influx of export registrations during the peak U.S. export season.

• Further, since the last report, the United States entered a trade deal with China, which led to higher U.S. prices and narrowed the price spread between U.S. and other major exporters. While U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise to China for the rest of the marketing year, these higher shipments could be offset by reductions to other markets where the United States no longer holds a large price discount compared to other exporters.

• Global soybean exports for 2025-2026 were increased 0.2 million tons to 188 million. Exports were raised 0.5 million tons for Brazil and 2.3 million for Argentina, in line with increases in the previous marketing year and large export registrations to date, mostly offsetting are lower shipments for the United States and Ukraine.

• Global ending stocks were lowered by 2 million tons to 122 million, with lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, the United States, the European Union, Ukraine and India partly offset by higher stocks for China.

Wheat: Based on large global supplies and reduced price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year, USDA lowered the U.S. season-average price a dime to $5 per bushel.

• U.S. supplies were raised on greater production, up 58 million bushels to 1.985 billion, on a record all wheat yield based on the Sept. 30 small grains summary.

• World trade is 2.5 million tons larger at 217.2 million, primarily on greater exports for Argentina, Australia and Kazakhstan that are only partly offset by a reduction for Russia.

• Projected 2025-2026 global ending stocks were increased by 7.4 million tons to 271.4 million, resulting in what would be the first year-to-year increase in global wheat stocks since 2019-2020.

Corn (2025-2026 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 18.309 billion bushels

Exports: 3.075 billion bushels

Feed, residual: 6.1 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial: 6.98 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.6 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.154 billion bushels

Soybeans (2025-2026 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.59 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 110 million bushels

Exports: 1.635 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.555 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 390 million bushels