More harvested acres offset yield reduction

CHARLOTTE, Mich. — The bulk of changes on the crop supply and demand estimates report were influenced by increases in corn and soybean harvested acres projected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Angie Setzer and Consus Ag Consulting copartner Karl Setzer reviewed the key data from USDA’s crop balance sheet report on their live podcast on X.

On the domestic corn side, what were the key changes in the Sept. 12 report?

Angie: Corn carryout came in higher than expected at 2.11 billion bushels. The bulk of the increase in everything in corn came from increased acreage.

We went from 88.7 million harvested to 90 million harvested. So, 1.3 million acres more of harvested area found, which is a chunk.

That added that production to our bottom line because it couldn’t all be offset by the increase in exports.

Feed and residual was left unchanged. Food, seed and industrial, all that stuff, was left unchanged. USDA raised corn exports by 100 million to 2.975 billion bushels. Yield was lowered by 2.1 bushels per acre.

Carryout basically came in 7 million bushels lower than last month. Traders were expecting to come in about 100 million bushels lower.

Was it the same story for soybeans?

Angie: On the soybean side, we found a couple hundred thousand acres of beans. USDA raised the harvested area to 80.3 million acres. USDA only reduced production by 0.1 bushel an acre.

Old crop ending stocks were left unchanged. We had a little flipper-flopper over on the crushing versus export side of things. Crush was increased 15 million; soybean exports were reduced 20 million.

Soybean carryout came in at 300 million, up 10 million bushels from last month. Traders were expecting it to come in at 288.

Were there any numbers of note on the global balance sheet?

Karl: Global wheat carryout was 260 million metric tons last month. We expected 261 million and it came in at 264 million.

Global corn carryout was actually a little bit lower at 281.4 million metric tons. The trade was expecting 282.1. It was 282.54 million last month.

World soybean carryout was 123.99 million metric tons. Trade was expecting 125.1. It was 124.9 million in August. So, a pretty sizable cut to the soy carryout from what we were expecting.

Looking at the global production numbers, everything else is holding in there and really the U.S. is the only thing that we’re seeing for a production change right now.

The world soy oil supply did tighten up a little bit. The 2025-2026 world soy oil carryout is 5.84 million metric tons, down from 5.96 million.

There was some concern heading into the report with this cheap palm oil we’ve been seeing that that would cut into the world’s soy carryout.

Here’s the big one: 2024-2025 global soy oil is almost 1 million metric tons below what we had in August. The world soy oil numbers are giving us some support.

Any closing thoughts?

Angie: The USDA on both corn and soybeans has been really slow to make yield cuts, you could say.

Now that this is out of the way, we get quarterly stocks at the end of the month. So, you’ll probably hear everyone say, “Oh, well, when we get to quarterly stocks, they’ll show that we have more corn carryout, and this is why corn is bearish.” That’ll be fun to look forward to for the next couple of weeks, just so you’re prepared for that.

But beyond that, really, now it’s just time for the combines to get rolling. I know you’re going to see harvest really pick up.

We’re getting a lot more in the way of what appears to be disappointing yields. It’s early yet, but there have been a way a lot more worse than expected or not as good as expected in my inbox so far. It’s super early, so we’ll see.