Corn ending stocks projected at 7-year high

WASHINGTON — Shifts in planted acres and projected higher yields pushed corn and soybean ending stocks in opposite directions in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report on Aug. 12.

Here are the highlights.

Corn: USDA lowered the 2025-2026 season-average price projection received by producers by 30 cents from last month to $3.90 per bushel.

• Projected beginning stocks for 2025-2026 are 35 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2024-2025.

• For 2024-2025, larger corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol and glucose and dextrose.

• New crop corn production is forecast at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1 billion from last month’s estimate with a 1.9-million acre increase in harvested area and higher yield. If realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023-2024.

• The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection.

• Total U.S. corn use for 2025-2026 is forecast 545 million bushels higher to 16 billion.

• Feed and residual use was hiked by 250 million bushels to 6.1 billion based on a larger crop and lower expected prices.

• Corn used for glucose and dextrose was projected lower based on observed use during 2024-2025.

• Corn used for ethanol for 2025-2026 was increased by 100 million bushels to 5.6 billion.

• Exports were raised 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and expectations of relatively low world market prices.

• With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2.1 billion and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018-2019.

• Foreign corn production is down reflecting cuts to the European Union and Serbia that are partially offset by increases for Ukraine and Canada. For the EU and Serbia, extreme heat and dryness in southeastern Europe during the month of July reduces yield prospects. Area is also lowered for the EU.

• Global corn stocks, at 282.6 million tons, are up 10.4 million.

Soybeans: USDA projects the 2025-2026 season-average prices unchanged from last month at $10.10 per bushel.

• Beginning stocks were lowered 20 million bushels on an increase to crush and exports in the prior marketing year.

• New crop soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million on a lower area partly offset by a higher yield.

• Harvested area is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million from July.

• The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.6 bushels per acre is up 1.1 bushels from last month.

• With lower supply and the slow pace of export sales to date, exports were lowered by 40 million bushels.

• Global soybean production for 2025-2026 was lowered mainly on lower production for the United States and Serbia.

• U.S. soybean exports were reduced, but raised for Argentina and Uruguay. Imports were lowered for the EU, Iran and Vietnam.

• Global ending stocks were lowered by 1.2 million tons to 124.9 million on lower stocks for Argentina, the EU, Iran, Vietnam and the United States.

Wheat: USDA dropped the season-average farm price by a dime to $5.30 per bushel.

• Supplies were reduced on lower production, down 2 million bushels to 1.927 billion on smaller harvested area only partly offset by a higher yield.

• The all wheat yield was raised 0.1 bushels per acre to 52.7. Production forecasts were decreased for hard red Spring and white, but increased for hard red winter, durum and soft red winter.

• Domestic use was reduced by 5 million bushels on reduced food use, based primarily on the latest USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service flour millings products report.

• Exports were raised 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong early pace of sales and shipments, particularly for hard red winter.

• Projected ending stocks were lowered by 21 million bushels to 869 million.

• Supplies are projected to drop 2.5 million tons to nearly 1.070 billion primarily on lower production for China, Brazil and Argentina that is only partly offset by a larger forecast for the EU. In addition, smaller beginning stocks are forecast for several countries including Ukraine, Saudi Arabia and the Philippines.

• Production in China was lowered 2 million tons to 140 million on National Bureau of Statistics data indicating smaller-than-expected yields.

• World trade is increased 0.5 million tons to 213.5 million primarily on increased exports by the United States.

• Projected 2025-2026 global ending stocks were reduced 1.4 million tons to 260.1 million, the lowest since 2015-2016.

Corn (2025-2026 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 18.072 billion bushels

Exports: 2.875 billion bushels

Feed, residual: 6.1 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial: 6.98 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.6 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.117 billion bushels.

Soybeans (2025-2026 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.642 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 107 million bushels

Exports: 1.705 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.54 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 290 million bushels