July 16, 2025

USDA forecasts lower wheat production

Acres of wheat shine from the sunlight in a field north of Logansport, Indiana.

WASHINGTON — U.S. winter wheat production was forecast lower in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s crop production report July 11.

Production is forecast at 1.35 billion bushels, down 3% from the previous forecast and less than 1% lower than 2024.

Based on July 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 54.2 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from last month and up 2.5 bushels from last year’s average yield. If realized, the nation’s yield would be the second highest behind 2016.

The all winter wheat area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 24.8 million acres, unchanged from the June 30 acreage report, but down 5% from last year.

‘I’ States

USDA increased the Illinois winter wheat yield forecast by 1 bushel from last month to an estimated record of 87 bushels per acre, compared to an statewide average of 86 a year ago.

If realized, Illinois would produce 59.16 million bushels from 680,000 harvested acres. Last year, Illinois’ 700,000 harvested acres produced 60.2 million bushels.

Indiana’s projected winter wheat average yield of 86 bushels per acre is unchanged from the June estimate and 3 bushels below 2024.

USDA has Indiana’s harvested acres at 235,000 for the potential production of 20.21 million bushels. In 2024, the state harvested 240,000 acres, hauling in 21.36 million bushels.

Tom Doran

Tom C. Doran

Field Editor