Lower production: USDA updates crop balance sheets

WASHINGTON — With data from the recent survey-based acreage and grain stocks reports, the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered new corn and soybean production estimates in its supply and demand estimates report.

Yield projections in the balance sheets are “based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather,” the USDA noted.

Here are the highlights.

Corn: The 2025-2026 season-average farm price received by producers was unchanged from last month at $4.20 per bushel.

• Corn beginning stocks were cut by 25 million bushels to 1.3 billion, reflecting an increase in exports that is partly offset by lower feed and residual use for 2024-2025.

• Domestic feed and residual use was reduced by 75 million based on indicated disappearance in the June 30 grain stocks report.

• Exports were raised 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date and, if realized, would be record high.

• U.S. corn production for 2025-2026 is forecast down 115 million bushels on lower planted and harvested area from the June 30 acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 181 bushels per acre.

• Total use was cut 50 million bushels with a reduction for feed and residual use based on lower supplies.

• With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks were lowered by 90 million bushels to 1.66 billion bushels.

• Foreign corn production was hiked reflecting area increases for Canada and Mexico.

• For 2024-2025, corn production is raised for Brazil and the Philippines with a partly offsetting decline for Mexico. Brazil corn yield expectations are boosted this month based on reported second crop harvest results to date for the center-west.

• Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025-2026 are cut, with reductions for China and India partly offset by an increase for Brazil. Global corn stocks, at 272.1 million tons, are down 3.2 million.

Soybeans: USDA lowered the new crop season-average price by 15 cents from last month to $10.10 per bushel.

• U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 5 million from last month on lower harvested acres and an unchanged yield of 52.5 bushels per acre.

• Domestic soybean crush for 2025-2026 was hiked by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion, supported by higher demand for soybean oil for biofuel.

• This month’s report assumes the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed rule for required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026 and 2027 when evaluating soybean oil demand. EPA not only significantly raised the mandates, but also proposed to reduce the number of Renewable Identification Numbers generated for imported renewable fuels and renewable fuels produced from foreign feedstocks starting in 2026, which increases demand for domestically produced feedstocks like soybean oil.

• Along with EPA’s proposed rule, the forecast considered additional policy incentives like the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit and current state mandates. As a result, soybean oil used for biofuel for 2025-2026 was raised 1.6 billion pounds to 15.5 billion, reflecting a 23% increase from the prior three-year average.

• Given higher domestic demand for biofuel, soybean oil imports were raised and exports were reduced. Soybean oil in the residual category — food, feed and other industrial use — is unchanged. Higher stocks at biofuel facilities that fall into this category could displace other uses, which are expected to be partially offset by higher use of canola oil and palm oil.

• Soybean oil ending stocks were increased 0.1 billion pounds to 1.7 billion. With higher soybean oil prices supporting crush margins and higher crush in 2025-2026, soybean meal production is raised 1.2 million short tons.

• Domestic disappearance was increased 0.5 million short tons to 41.8 million, a 3% increase over the prior year. The export forecast was raised 0.7 million short tons to 18.7 million.

• U.S. soybean exports for 2025-2026 were lowered 70 million bushels to 1.75 billion on higher U.S. domestic demand, higher exports for Argentina and Ukraine, and larger Brazilian supplies at the end of September during the U.S. peak export season.

• With lower U.S. soybean exports partly offset by higher crush, ending stocks are increased 15 million bushels to 310 million.

• Global soybean exports were lowered as reduced U.S. exports are partly offset by higher exports for Argentina and Ukraine. Imports were reduced for India, Mexico and Saudi Arabia.

• Global soybean ending stocks are increased 0.8 million tons to 126.1 million on higher stocks for Brazil and the United States partly offset by lower stocks for China, Argentina and Mexico.

Wheat: The season-average farm price for 2025-2026 was unchanged from last month at $5.40 per bushel, down from last year’s final average price of $5.52.

• Supplies were raised as wheat production is projected at 1.929 billion bushels, up 8 million from last month on higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area.

• The all wheat yield is 52.6 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from last month.

• Winter wheat production was lowered 36 million bushels to 1.345 billion with reductions in hard red winter and soft red winter.

• The initial 2025-2026 survey-based production forecasts indicate that other spring wheat is less than last year at 504 million bushels on lower harvested area and yields while durum is slightly lower at 80 million on reduced yields.

• U.S. exports were hiked by 25 million bushels to 850 million on a strong early pace of sales and shipments.

• Projected 2025-2026 ending stocks are lowered 8 million bushels to 890 million, but are up 5% from last year.

• World wheat trade is 1.3 million tons lower at 213.1 million on reduced exports for the European Union and Ukraine only partially offset by higher exports for Russia and the United States.

• Projected 2025-2026 global ending stocks are lowered 1.2 million tons to 261.5 million, primarily on reductions for Canada and the EU.

Corn

(2025-2026 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 17.07 billion bushels

Exports: 2.675 billion bushels

Feed, residual: 5.85 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial: 6.885 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.5 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.66 billion bushels

Soybeans

(2025-2026 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.705 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 110 million bushels

Exports: 1.745 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.54 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 310 million bushels