Slight uptick in winter wheat forecast

WASHINGTON — U.S. winter wheat production is forecast to be 2% above 2024 and slightly higher than last month’s estimate.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s crop production report projects the U.S. average yield at 53.7 bushels per acre, as of June 1 conditions.

The forecast is unchanged from last month and 2 bushels higher than last year’s average, for total production of 1.38 billion bushels.

Hard red winter production, at 782 million bushels, is down less than 1% from last month. Soft red winter production is estimated at 345 million bushels, less than 1% higher than the May forecast.

White Winter, at 254 million bushels, is up 1% from last month. Of the white winter production, 20.7 million bushels are hard white and 233 million bushels are soft white.

As of June 1, 52% of the nation’s winter wheat acreage in the 18 major producing states was rated in good to excellent condition, 3% higher than at the same time last year.

Nationally, 83% of the winter wheat crop was headed by June 1, 4% ahead of the five-year average pace.

‘I’ States

USDA projects 250,000 harvested acres in Indiana, 10,000 higher than 2024, and an average yield of 86 bushels per acre, 3 below last year. Total production is forecast at 21.5 million bushels after harvesting 21.36 million the prior year.

Illinois winter wheat is estimated to average 86 bushels per acre, matching last year and 1 above the May estimate.

The state’s 680,000 harvested acres is projected to produce 58.48 million bushels, compared to 60.2 million bushels across 700,000 acres last year.

Survey Procedures

Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between May 25 and June 8 to gather information on expected yield as of June 1.

The objective yield survey was conducted in 10 states that accounted for about 71% of the 2024 winter wheat production.

Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields.

The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop’s maturity. Counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that will be harvested.

The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield.

The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the heads are clipped, threshed and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet and personal interview.

Approximately 3,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about the probable yield on their operation.

These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields.