Slight increase in U.S. winter wheat production

WASHINGTON — A 2% year-over-year increase in winter wheat production is projected for 2025, according to the first farm operator survey of the growing season.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s May 12 crop production report forecasts the nation’s winter wheat production at 1.38 billion bushels. As of May 1, the U.S. yield is forecast at 53.7 bushels per acre, 2 bushels higher than last year’s yield.

Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.7 million acres, down 1% from last year.

As of May 4, 51% of the winter wheat acreage in the 18 major producing states was rated in good to excellent condition, 1% higher than the same time last year.

Nationally, 39% of the winter wheat crop was headed by May 4, 6% above the five-year average pace.

As of May 4, 47% of the winter wheat crop in Kansas, the largest winter wheat producing state, was rated in good to excellent condition.

‘I’ States

Indiana has 320,000 planted acres of winter wheat and will harvest 250,000 acres, 10,000 more than last year, the USDA estimated.

The yield average is projected at 86 bushels per acre, 3 less than 2024, for total production of 21.5 million bushels. The 2024 production totaled 21.36 million bushels.

USDA’s March acreage report had winter wheat planted acres in Illinois at 780,000. The agency estimates a harvest area of 680,000, 20,000 less than 2024.

The Prairie State’s average yield is projected at 85 bushels per acre, 1 less than last year, for total production of 57.8 million bushels, compared to 60.2 million a year ago.

Survey Procedures

Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between April 24 and May 7 to gather information on expected yield as of May 1.

The objective yield survey was conducted in three states — Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas — where wheat is normally mature enough to make meaningful counts.

Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop’s maturity.

Counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested.

The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield.

The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the heads are clipped, threshed and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 8,800 producers representing all major production areas. The survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and internet.

These producers were selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable winter wheat acres for harvest and yield on their operation. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields.