Lower ending stocks, price projections unchanged

WASHINGTON — Lower corn and soybean production estimates resulted in slightly tighter supplies in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report on Nov. 8.

Here are the details.

Soybeans: USDA kept the U.S. season-average 2024-2025 price forecast the same as last month at $10.80 per bushel.

• U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.5 billion bushels, down 121 million on reduced yields. The largest production changes are for Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota.

• Exports were lowered 25 million bushels to 1.8 billion on lower supplies and sales to date.

• Crush was reduced by 15 million bushels to 2.4 billion, reflecting lower soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports.

• U.S. soybean ending stocks were lowered 80 million bushels to 470 million bushels.

• Global 2024-2025 soybean production was reduced by 3.5 million tons to 425.4 million, mainly on lower production for the United States and India. Production for India is lowered 0.2 million tons to 12.6 million on information from the Soybean Processors Association of India.

• Global soybean exports were raised on higher shipments for Brazil, Canada and Benin largely offset by lower U.S. shipments. Imports are raised for Pakistan.

• Global soybean ending stocks were reduced 2.9 million tons to 131.7 million mainly on lower stocks for the United States, Brazil and Argentina.

Corn: The new crop season-average received by producers was unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.

• Corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 60 million from last month on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 183.1 bushels per acre.

• Harvested area for grain was unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total use remained at 15 billion bushels.

• With supply falling and no change to use, corn ending stocks are down to 1.9 billion bushels.

• Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Uganda, Malawi, Belarus, Mozambique, Kenya and Cameroon are partly offset by declines for Mexico, Turkey and the European Union. Mexico production is lowered reflecting lower winter corn area expectations.

• Major global trade changes include lower corn exports for Brazil and South Africa with increases for Burma and Uganda. Corn imports were lowered for China and Malawi, but raised for Mexico, Vietnam, Turkey and Peru.

• Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting a decline for China that is partly offset by increases for Mexico, Uganda and Canada.

• Global corn ending stocks, at 304.1 million tons, are down 2.4 million.

Wheat: Based on prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices, USDA lowered the season-average price by a dime to $5.60 per bushel.

• Supplies were hiked on higher imports, increased 5 million bushels to 120 million, all on hard red spring.

• Domestic use was raised, all on food use, based mainly on the NASS flour milling products report.

• Exports were unchanged at 825 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class changes.

• Projected 2024-2025 ending stocks were increased 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17% from last year.

• Global supplies are projected to increase 0.7 million tons to 1.061 billion as higher production for Kazakhstan more than offsets reductions for Argentina, Brazil, Russia and the EU. Kazakhstan’s production is raised 2 million tons to 18 million on harvest results. This is the third-largest crop on record for Kazakhstan.

• Projected 2024-2025 global ending stocks were reduced by 0.1 million tons to 257.6 million as decreases for Argentina, China and Brazil are not completely offset by increases for Kazakhstan and Turkey.

Corn (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.928 billion bushels

Exports: 2.325 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.825 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.84 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.45 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.938 billion bushels

Soybeans (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.818 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 113 million bushels

Exports: 1.825 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.410 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 470 million bushels