July 15, 2024

Global corn, soybean ending stocks reduced

USDA supply and demand estimates

Chicago corn futures advanced on May 10 after the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected U.S. stockpiles of the grain below market expectations. Soybeans followed corn higher, underpinned by worries about weather damage to Brazil’s crop. Wheat futures rose to a fresh nine-month high as Russian wheat regions were hit by another night of frost.

WASHINGTON — Only small changes were made in the primary crop balance sheets released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on June 12.

Here are the details of USDA’s supply and demand estimates report.

Corn: USDA projects a 2024-2025 season average price of $4.40 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

• No changes were made in production or usage estimates this month.

• USDA will release its acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area.

• Foreign corn production is marginally higher, with increases for Ukraine and Zambia partially offset by a reduction for Russia. Corn area was raised for Ukraine, but lowered for Russia.

• For 2023-2024, corn exports were hiked for South Africa, Russia, the European Union and Uruguay.

• Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, mostly reflecting reductions for South Africa, Russia and Tanzania.

• Global corn ending stocks, at 310.8 million tons, are 1.5 million tons lower.

Soybeans: The new crop price was unchanged from last month at $11.20 per bushel.

• Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced crush for 2023-2024, down 10 million bushels on lower soybean meal domestic use that is partly offset by higher exports.

• New crop ending stocks were therefore increased by 10 million bushels to 455 million.

• Soybean oil domestic use was also lowered for 2023-2024 and partly offset by higher exports.

• With increased supplies for 2024-2025 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 455 million bushels, up 10 million from the May estimate.

• Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged, at $330 per short ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively.

• Higher beginning stocks for the United States are offset by lower stocks for Brazil and Paraguay.

• Brazil’s stocks are lowered on a downward revision to 2023-2024 production, down 1 million metric tons to 153 million, reflecting further in-country assessments of flooding in Rio Grande do Sul by Brazil’s state agency, Emater.

• Global soybean ending stocks were reduced by 0.6 million tons to 127.9 million.

Wheat: The 2024-2025 season average farm price was increased 50 cents from last month to $6.50 per bushel.

• Supplies were increased as all wheat production is forecast at 1.875 billion bushels, up 17 million from last month on higher hard red winter production more than offsetting reductions in soft red winter and white winter.

• The all wheat yield is estimated at 49.4 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels from last month.

• The export forecast was raised by 25 million bushels to 800 million, as U.S. wheat prices are expected to be increasingly competitive with reduced exportable Black Sea supplies.

• Ending stocks were lowered slightly to 758 million bushels, but still significantly higher than the previous year.

• Global wheat supplies are projected to decrease 5.7 million tons to just over 1.05 billion, as significant reductions in production for Russia, Ukraine and the EU are only partly offset by larger global beginning stocks.

• Production for Russia was reduced by 5 million tons to 83 million, all for winter wheat, as hot and dry weather lowered yield prospects following May frosts.

• In Ukraine, production was lowered 1.5 million tons to 19.5 million based on similar hot and dry weather conditions.

• The EU forecast was reduced 1.5 million tons to 130.5 million after prolonged wet weather in France resulted in fewer growing degree days and lowered the yield potential.

• World wheat trade was lowered as well, down 3.2 million tons to 212.8 million, as lower exports from Russia and Ukraine are only partly offset by increases for the EU and the United States.

• Projected 2024-2025 global ending stocks are down by 1.3 million tons to 252.3 million, primarily on reduced stocks in the EU.

Corn (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.907 billion bushels

Exports: 2.2 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.75 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.855 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.45 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.102 billion bushels

Soybeans (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.815 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 110 million bushels

Exports: 1.825 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.425 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 455 million bushels

Tom Doran

Tom C. Doran

Field Editor