Reduced usage raises crop supplies

WASHINGTON — Lower demand pushed corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks upward in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report Feb. 8.

Here are the details.

Corn: USDA kept the projected season-average price unchanged from last month at $4.80 per bushel.

• Corn used for glucose and dextrose was reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date.

• With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks were up 10 million bushels from last month to 2.172 billion bushels.

• Foreign corn production was down, with reductions for Brazil, Mexico and Serbia partially offset by increases for India and Turkey. For Brazil, production was cut based on lower expected area.

• Foreign corn ending stocks were down relative to last month, reflecting reductions for Ukraine, Brazil, India, the European Union, Mexico and Paraguay. Global corn ending stocks, at 322.1 million tons, were down 3.2 million.

Soybeans: The 2023-2024 season-average price is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down a dime from last month.

• The soybean meal price was forecast unchanged at $380 per short ton. The soybean oil price was forecast at 51 cents per pound, down 3 cents.

• Soybean exports were forecast at 1.72 billion bushels, down 35 million from last month, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through January and strong competition with Brazil.

• With crush unchanged, U.S. ending stocks were forecast at 315 million bushels, up 35 million from a month ago.

• Global beginning stocks were raised 1.7 million tons mainly on a higher 2022-2023 crop for Brazil. Brazil’s 2022-2023 production was increased 2 million tons to 162 million on a higher area and yield and reflects nearly finalized crush and export data through the end of the crop year.

• Brazil’s 2023-2024 crop was lowered by 1 million tons to 156 million as higher harvested area is offset by a lower yield on adverse weather conditions in southern Mato Grosso and Parana.

• Global soybean ending stocks were increased 1.4 million tons to 116 million on higher stocks for the United States and Brazil.

Wheat: USDA projected season-average farm price at $7.20 per bushel, unchanged from January.

• Food use was reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grind as indicated in the National Agricultural Statistics Service flour milling products report released on Feb. 1. The reduction is the result of the October-December quarter, which was the lowest flour grind on record for this quarter as reported in flour milling products.

• Wheat exports were unchanged at 725 million bushels with offsetting by class changes for hard red spring and hard red winter.

• The 20223-2024 projected U.S. ending stocks were raised 10 million bushels to 658 million.

• Global supplies were hiked by 0.5 million tons to 1.057 billion, primarily on higher production for Iraq and Argentina.

• World trade was raised 1.2 million tons to 210.7 million with higher exports by Ukraine, Argentina, Australia and Turkey that more than offset reduced exports from the United Kingdom and Brazil.

• Projected 2023-2024 ending stocks were reduced 0.7 million tons to 259.4 million, the lowest level since 2015-2016, on decreases for India, China and Ukraine.

Corn (2023-2024 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.727 billion bushels

Exports: 2.1 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.675 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.780 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.375 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.172 billion bushels

Soybeans (2023-2024 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.459 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 124 million bushels

Exports: 1.720 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.3 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 315 million bushels