WASHINGTON — Month-over-month projected corn and soybean prices were unchanged while wheat saw an uptick in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report on Dec. 8.
Here are the highlights.
Soybeans: USDA left the projected season-average price for the 2023-2024 marketing year at $12.90 per bushel.
• Soybean supply and use projections for were unchanged from last month’s estimates.
• Global soybean production was reduced by 1.5 million tons mainly on lower 2023-2024 production for Brazil, reduced 2 million tons to 161 million reflecting hot and dry conditions in southern Mato Grosso and northeast Brazil. Partly offsetting is higher soybean production for Canada and Russia.
• The global 2023-2024 soybean outlook includes higher beginning stocks, lower production, increased exports and slightly lower ending stocks.
• Beginning stocks were raised mainly on a 2-million-ton increase to 160 million for Brazil’s 2022-2023 production based on higher-than-expected use through November.
• Increased supplies and early exports in the current marketing year — starting October 2023 — led to a 2-million-ton increase to Brazil’s exports to 99.5 million metric tons.
• China’s imports were also hiked by 2 million tons to 102 million on strong early season shipments by major exporters.
• Global soybean ending stocks were reduced slightly as higher stocks for China are offset by lower stocks for Brazil.
Corn: The season-average price received by producers in the current marketing year was unchanged at $4.85 per bushel.
• USDA increased exports by 25 million bushels to 2.1 billion reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date.
• With no other domestic use changes, corn ending stocks were reduced 25 million bushels to 2.1 billion.
• Foreign corn production was raised with increases for Russia, Ukraine, the European Union and Egypt partially offset by reductions for Mexico and Canada.
• Corn production for Ukraine and Russia was hiked based on reported harvest results to date. EU corn production is higher as an increase for France is partially offset by a reduction for Bulgaria. Mexico corn production is cut mostly reflecting lower area.
• Global corn stocks are up fractionally at 315.2 million tons.
Wheat: The season-average farm price was increased by a dime from last month to $7.30 per bushel.
• U.S. exports were increased 25 million bushels to 725 million on several large recent export sales of soft red winter wheat to China.
• Soft red winter wheat U.S. exports were raised 30 million bushels to 175 million, the largest soft red exports since 2013-2014.
• Domestic white wheat exports were reduced 5 million bushels to 155 million on a slow pace of sales and shipments.
• Projected all wheat ending stocks were lowered by 25 million bushels to 659 million, still up 13% from last year.
• Global wheat supplies were raised 1.3 million tons to nearly 1.053 billion, primarily on higher government production estimates for Australia and Canada partially offset by a reduction for Brazil.
• Global consumption was increased by 1.8 million tons to 794.7 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use for the EU, South Korea and Thailand and increased food, seed and industrial use primarily for China.
• World wheat trade was hiked by 2.2 million tons to 207.2 million on higher exports by Australia, the United States, Canada and Ukraine.
• Projected 2023-2024 global ending stocks were reduced 0.5 million tons to 258.2 million, the lowest since 2015-2016.
Corn
(2023-2024 marketing year)
Total corn supply: 16.621 billion bushels
Exports: 2.1 billion bushels
Feed, residual use: 5.65 billion bushels
Food, seed, industrial use: 6.74 billion bushels
Ethanol and byproducts: 5.325 billion bushels
Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.131 billion bushels
Soybeans
(2023-2024 marketing year)
Total soybean supply: 4.428 billion bushels
Seed, residual: 127 million bushels
Exports: 1.755 billion bushels
Crushings: 2.3 billion bushels
Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 245 million bushels
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