June 20, 2024

Crop ending stocks on upward climb

WASHINGTON — The trend of production outpacing use was reflected in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report.

Here are the highlights of the report released Nov. 9.

Corn: The 2023-2024 season-average price received by producers was lowered by a dime to $4.85 per bushel.

• U.S. corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 170 million from last month on a 1.9-bushel increase in yield to 174.9 bushels per acre.

• With larger supplies, feed and residual use was increased 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion and corn used for ethanol was upped by 25 million bushels to 5.3 billion.

• U.S. exports were raised 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion.

• With domestic supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 45 million bushels to 2.156 billion.

• Global coarse grain production for 2023-2024 is forecast up 4.8 million tons to 1.499 billion.

• This month’s marketing year foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade and ending stocks relative to last month.

• Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, Paraguay and China that are partly offset by a decline for Iran. Global corn ending stocks, at 315 million tons, were up 2.6 million.

Soybeans: USDA forecasts the 2023-2024 season-average price at $12.90, unchanged from the October estimate.

• U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.13 billion bushels, up 25 million on higher yields. The largest production changes were for Wisconsin, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota and Ohio.

• With crush and exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks were increased by 25 million to 245 million bushels.

• Global beginning stocks were lowered by 1.6 million tons, reflecting offsetting back-year balance sheet revisions for China and Brazil.

• China’s beginning stocks were reduced on lower soybean imports for 2021-2022 and 20222-2023 and higher crush for 2022-2023. Conversely, Brazil’s beginning stocks were increased on a larger 2022-2023 crop of 158 million tons due to higher-than-expected use to date.

• Global 2023-2024 soybean production was hiked by 0.9 million tons to 400.4 million, mainly on higher production for Russia, Ukraine and the United States.

• Global soybean crush was raised on higher crush for China and Russia.

• Global soybean ending stocks were lowered by 1.1 million tons as higher stocks for Brazil and the United States are more than offset by lower stocks for China.

Wheat: The projected U.S. season-average farm price was lowered by 10 cents to $7.20 per bushel based on lower expected prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

• U.S. supplies were raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 145 million, on a strong pace to date and expectations for the rest of the marketing year.

• Total domestic use is projected 4 million bushels lower to 1.155 billion, all on a reduction in food use following the release of the latest National Agricultural Statistics Service flour milling products report. July-September wheat used in milling is the smallest for this quarter since at least 2014 when NASS began reporting this series.

• With no other changes to the U.S. balance sheet, projected ending stocks were raised 14 million bushels to 684 million.

• Global supplies are projected up 0.6 million tons to nearly 1.052 billion as increased beginning stocks more than offset a decline in global production.

• World production was lowered 1.5 million tons to 782 million on decreases in many countries including India, Argentina, Kazakhstan, the United Kingdom and Brazil.

• The global forecast for trade was reduced 1.3 million tons to 205 million, primarily on lower exports from Argentina, India and Egypt that are only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine.

• Projected global ending stocks were raised 0.6 million tons to 258.7 million, with larger forecasts for Russia, China and Argentina more than offsetting declines for India, Ukraine and Brazil.

Corn (2023-2024 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.621 billion bushels

Exports: 2.075 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.65 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.74 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.325 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.156 billion bushels

Soybeans (2023-2024 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.428 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 127 million bushels

Exports: 1.755 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.3 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 245 million bushels

Tom Doran

Tom C. Doran

Field Editor