June 15, 2024

Yield reductions don’t budge price projections

WASHINGTON — Lower corn and soybean yield projections had little impact on anticipated season-average prices due to larger harvested area and demand factors in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report Sept. 12.

Corn: USDA kept the season-average price projection received by producers in 2023-2024 at $4.90 per bushel.

• Projected beginning stocks for 2023-2024 are 5 million bushels lower based on mostly offsetting trade and corn used for ethanol changes for 2022-2023.

• Corn production for 2023-2024 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 23 million from last month as greater harvested area more than offsets a reduction in yield.

• The national average yield is forecast at 173.8 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 87.1 million acres, up 0.8 million.

• Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 14.4 billion.

• With supply rising slightly and use unchanged, ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion.

• Foreign corn production is virtually unchanged with an increase for Ukraine largely offset by a decline for the European Union. Ukraine corn production was raised on an increase in yield expectations, while EU corn production was lowered based on reductions for France and Bulgaria that are partly offset by an increase for Germany.

• World corn ending stocks at 314 million tons are up 2.9 million relative to last month.

Soybeans: The U.S. 2023-2024 season-average price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up 20 cents from the august estimate.

• Lower beginning domestic stocks reflect an increase for exports in 2022-2023.

• U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.1 billion bushels, down 59 million with higher harvested area offset by a lower yield.

• Harvested area was increased 0.1 million acres from the August forecast.

• The soybean yield of 50.1 bushels per acre is down 0.8 bushels from last month.

• The U.S. soybean crush forecast was reduced 10 million bushels and the export forecast was lowered 35 million bushels on lower supplies.

• Ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.

• Global 2023-2024 soybean crush was lowered by 1.8 million tons to 327.7 million on lower crush for Argentina, Pakistan, the EU, Thailand and the United States. Argentina’s crush is reduced 1.8 million tons to 34.5 million on lower expected supplies over the next several months prior to next year’s harvest. China’s crush was raised 1 million tons to 96 million in line with higher crush and domestic soybean meal demand in the prior marketing year.

• Global soybean exports were reduced 0.4 million tons to 168.4 million as lower U.S. exports are partly offset by higher shipments from Brazil and Ukraine.

• Imports were lowered for Pakistan, Thailand, the EU and Indonesia.

• China’s imports for 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 were increased on higher crush demand and large shipments from Brazil that are expected to continue into the next marketing year.

• Global soybean ending stocks were lowered by 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million.

Wheat: The USDA kept the season-average farm price at $7.50 per bushel from last month.

• The 2023-2024 U.S. all wheat outlook for supply and use was unchanged this month with offsetting by-class changes on exports.

• Global wheat supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1.055 billion, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. If realized, this would be the first year-to-year decline in global wheat production since 2018-2019.

• Canada wheat production was decreased 2 million tons to 31 million on the initial model-based forecast by Statistics Canada for the 2023-2024 crop, indicating lower yields from last year arising from dry conditions across the Prairies.

• Despite smaller global supplies, world consumption is nearly unchanged with decreased food, seed and industrial use mostly offset by increased feed and residual use.

• World wheat ending stocks were lowered 7 million tons to 258.6 million and would be the lowest since 2015-2016. Ending stocks are tightened in many countries this month, particularly for several major wheat exporters.

Corn (2023-2024 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.611 billion bushels

Exports: 2.05 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.625 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.715 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.3 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.221 billion bushels

Soybeans (2023-2024 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.426 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 126 million bushels

Exports: 1.79 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.29 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 220 million bushels

Tom Doran

Tom C. Doran

Field Editor