WASHINGTON — Information from the first farmer operator surveys of the growing season projected record or record-tying corn, soybean and winter wheat yields in Indiana while Illinois yields were estimated lower with the exception of a record wheat estimate.
‘I’ Corn
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Aug. 11 crop production report stated Indiana’s average corn yield is forecast at a record-tying 195 bushels per acre set in 2021, up 5 bushels from the previous year. Total production is forecast at 1.049 billion bushels, up 8% from last year on both higher yields and more anticipated harvested acres at 5.38 million, 250,000 above 2022.
Based on Aug. 1 conditions, the Illinois corn yield is forecast at 201 bushels per acre, down 13 bushels from 2022. The anticipated harvested area is 11.3 million acres, up 7% from last year’s 10.6 million. Production is forecast at 2.27 billion bushels, up less than 1% from last year’s production.
Iowa corn yields are expected to average 203 bushels per acre, up 3 bushels from last year. Production is forecast at 2.62 billion bushels, 6% higher than the 2.48 billion in 2022. An estimated 12.9 million of the acres planted will be harvested for grain compared to 12.4 million a year ago.
‘I’ Soybeans
Indiana’s soybean yield is forecast at a record-tying 60 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels from 2022. The 60-bushel mark was also hit in 2021. Total production is forecast at 329 million bushels, down 2% from last year. The 5.48 million harvested acres is down 350,000 from 2022.
The Illinois soybean yield is forecast at 62 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel per acre from last year. The projected harvested area of 9.95 million acres is 7% lower than last year’s 10.75 million. Production is forecast at a 617 million bushels, down 9% from 2022.
Iowa’s soybean yield is anticipated to average 58 bushels per acre, one-half bushel below 2022. Soybean production is forecast at 558 million bushels, 5% lower than the nearly 587 million the previous year. Soybean harvested acreage is estimated at 9.62 million acres compared to 10.03 million a year ago.
‘I’ Winter Wheat
Winter wheat yield in Indiana is estimated at a record 90 bushels per acre, up 14 from the previous forecast, 9 bushels above last year and 5 above the 2021 record. Winter wheat production is forecast at 32.4 million bushels, up 67% from last year due to record yields and acreage. Harvested acres of 360,000 are 120,000 above 2022.
Illinois’ winter wheat yield is forecast at record 84 bushels per acre, 5 bushels higher than the previous highs in 2022 and 2021. Harvested area in 2023 is forecast at 780,000 acres, 39% above the previous year’s 560,000. Production is forecast at 65.5 million bushels, up 48% from the 44.24 million last year.
Nationwide
U.S. corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, the second highest production on record for the nation and up 10% from 2022.
Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, the average corn yield is forecast at 175.1 bushels per acre, 1% above last year’s final estimate of 173.3 bushels per acre.
The nation’s projected average soybean yield based on the survey is 50.9 bushels per acre, up 1.4 bushels from 2022. Production is forecast at 4.21 billion bushels, 2% lower than last year’s 4.276 billion.
Area harvested for soybeans in the United States is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but down 4% from 86.34 million in 2022.
The USDA forecast an average U.S. winter wheat yield of 48.1 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month’s forecast and 1.1 bushels above last year’s yield.
Record high yields are also forecast in Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
Total planted area, at 36.8 million acres, is 1% lower than the acreage report released June 30, but up 11% from 2022.
Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.5 million acres, 1% below the previous forecast, but up 9% from last year.
Nationwide production is forecast at 1.23 billion bushels, 2% above the previous forecast and 11% higher than last year.
Statistical Methodology
Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between July 24 and Aug. 7 to gather information on expected yields as of Aug. 1.
The objective yield survey for winter wheat was conducted in 10 states that account for 64% of the 2022 winter wheat production.
Farm operators selected for the objective yield survey were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected fields for the objective yield survey. The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop.
The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet and personal interviews.
Approximately 14,700 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields.