October 04, 2022

Survey finds fewer corn, soybean bushels

MCHENRY, Ill. — A producer-based survey found less corn and soybean bushels in the “I” states and lower nationwide yield averages.

Allendale Inc., an area agricultural commodity brokerage and analysis firm, projected U.S. corn to average 172.39 bushels per acre and a soybean average of 50.86 bushels per acre.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August estimates had corn averaging 175.45 and soybeans at 51.95 bushels per acre.

The survey had Illinois’ corn yield average 2 bushels below USDA’s at 201 bushels per acre and soybeans averaging 64 bushels per acre, also 2 below the August estimates.

Indiana producers estimate average yields of 185 and 57 bushels per acre for corn and soybeans, respectively. USDA’s August estimates were 189 and 60.

Iowa also saw a drop in production projections in the survey, pegging corn at 198 and soybeans at 56 bushels per acre. Last month USDA had Iowa’s yield averages at 205 and 58.

Allendale’s 33rd annual nationwide producer yield survey was conducted Aug. 15-28.

“This is a producer-led survey. They can give us inputs directly through social media, on our website and various other platforms. In addition, these can be surveys taken directly from our staff from our headquarters in McHenry, Illinois, and our 16 branch offices. So, we have roughly over 50 individuals who are trained on taking these surveys and discussions with producers,” said Rich Nelson, Allendale chief strategist.

These estimates were based on producer calculated yields in 26 states. Ample surveys gave Allendale the numbers needed to project yields in 12 states.

This covers 86% of corn production and 83% of soybean production. For this survey, the smaller states were assumed using USDA’s Aug. 12 estimates.

“We are seeing a moderate decline in corn yield, not severe, and a slight decline for soybeans for this September report, but something that does support the market’s moderate rise in recent days,” Nelson said.

Below Trend

Nelson also noted the deviations from trend yields across many of the top producing states.

For corn, Iowa is 5% below trend yield, Illinois is 1% below trend, Indiana is 2% below trend and Nebraska is 9% below trend.

“One thing we’ll have to watch very closely is the South Dakota number. Will we see this 10% drop for South Dakota corn yields versus trend? That’s one thing I’m going to look at for in USDA’s September and October reports,” Nelson said.

Illinois is 2% above the soybean trend yield, and Indiana and Iowa are 2% below trend. South Dakota is 17% below trend.

“The big question is this South Dakota issue, and, just like corn, I will be watching this number very closely on the September and October USDA reports,” Nelson said.

Marketing

The survey also polled producers on their crop sales pace and found 32% of new crop corn has been sold compared to 35% last year and 24% in the 2020 survey.

“That’s a larger than normal amount by standards and it is just under last year’s very aggressive new crop marketing,” Nelson noted.

Survey respondents said 34% of their new crop soybeans were sold compared to 31% in 2021 and 28% in 2020.

“Producers are quite active compared to history in getting some new crop soybeans sold,” Nelson added.

The survey found 42% of the wheat crop was sold, 8% below 2021.

Tom Doran

Tom Doran

Field Editor