August 19, 2022

Crop balance sheets: USDA lowers average price forecasts slightly

WASHINGTON — With the latest acreage and quarterly grain stocks data in hand, the U.S. Department of Agriculture made production and balance sheet adjustments in its July 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Here are the highlights.

Corn: The season-average farm price projected to be received by producers in 2022-2023 was lower by a dime from last month to $6.65 per bushel. Why?

• Beginning stocks were raised by 25 million bushels, based on reduced feed and residual use for 2021-2022 as indicated in the June 30 grain stocks report.

• Corn for ethanol and by-products was unchanged at 5.375 billion bushels.

• Corn production for 2022-2023 is forecast 45 million bushels higher based on greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 acreage report.

• The yield was unchanged at 177 bushels per acre.

• With no use changes, ending stocks are up 70 million bushels from June to 1.47 billion bushels.

• Foreign corn ending stocks are up marginally relative to last month. Global corn stocks, at 313 million tons, are up 2.5 million tons relative to last month.

Soybeans: The 2022-2023 season-average farm price was lowered by 30 cents from last month to a forecast of $14.40 per bushel. Why?

• Production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 135 million from the June forecast on lower harvested area.

• Harvested area, forecast at 87.5 million acres in the June 30 acreage report, is down 2.6 million from last month.

• The soybean yield forecast was unchanged at 51.5 bushels per acre.

• With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, 2022-2023 soybean supplies were lowered by 125 million bushels.

• Soybean crush was reduced 10 million bushels reflecting a lower soybean meal export forecast.

• Soybean exports were reduced by 65 million bushels to 2.14 billion on lower U.S. supplies, increased South American supplies and lower global imports.

• With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks for 2022-2023 are projected at 230 million bushels, down 50 million from last month.

• Global oilseed production was reduced 3.7 million tons to 643.1 million on lower soybean, rapeseed, cottonseed and peanut production with higher sunflower seed production partly offsetting.

• The 2022-2023 global soybean ending stocks were lowered slightly to 99.6 million tons as higher stocks for Argentina are more than offset by lower stocks for the United States, Brazil and China.

• Notable changes for 2021-2022 include reduced soybean crush and imports for China and increased soybean production, imports, crush and ending stocks for Argentina.

Wheat: USDA forecast a $10.50 per bushel 2022-2023 season-average farm price, 25 cents lower than last month due to declines in futures and cash prices. Why?

• Domestic supplies were raised on increased production, which is up 44 million bushels to 1.781 billion, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields.

• The first 2022 survey-based production forecast for other spring and durum indicated a large increase from last year’s drought-reduced output at 503 million and 77 million bushels, respectively.

• Winter wheat production is also forecast higher at 1.201 billion bushels on an increase in harvested area.

• The 2022-2023 export forecast is raised 25 million bushels to 800 million as the recent decline in U.S. prices makes exports more competitive in international markets.

• Global supplies were reduced 1.1 million tons to nearly 1.052 million as less production is partially offset by larger beginning stocks.

• Ukraine production was lowered by 2 million tons to 19.5 million on a reduction in harvested area, as indicated by government statistics. Ukraine wheat production was estimated at 33.01 million metric tons the previous year and 25.42 million in 2020-2021.

• World wheat consumption was reduced by 1.8 million tons to 784.2 million, primarily on reduced feed and residual use in the EU and Ukraine.

• Projected 2022-2023 world ending stocks were raised 0.7 million tons to 267.5 million but remain the lowest since 2016-2017.

Corn (2022-2023 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.04 billion bushels

Exports: 2.4 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.35 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.82 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.375 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.47 billion bushels

Soybeans (2022-2023 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.735 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 125 million bushels

Exports: 2.135 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.245 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 230 million bushels

Tom Doran

Tom Doran

Field Editor