June 27, 2022

Supply, demand estimates: USDA tightens soybean ending stocks

WASHINGTON — Adjustments in old crop corn and soybean exports moved ending stocks in different directions in the June 10 agricultural supply and demand estimates report.

Here are the report’s highlights.

Soybeans: The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast the 2022-2023 season average price at $14.70 per bushel, 30 cents up from last month. Why?

• Beginning stocks were lowered by 30 million bushels from last month to 205 million bushels due to higher exports in 2021-2022. The higher exports reflect strong sales and a reduced export forecast for Brazil.

• With reduced supplies for 2022-2023 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 280 million bushels, down 30 million from the May forecast.

• Global 2022-2023 soybean ending stocks were raised 0.9 million tons to 100.5 million, driven mainly by higher beginning stocks for Argentina and Brazil.

• Argentina’s 2021-2022 soybean production was hiked by 1.4 million tons to 43.4 million on better-than-expected reported yields.

• Brazil’s 2021-2022 soybean production was increased by 1 million tons to 126 million on higher area reported for Mato Grosso.

Corn: The season average farm price received by producers in the next marketing year was unchanged at $6.75 per bushel. Why?

• Beginning stocks were increased by 45 million bushels mostly reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2021-2022. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April and export inspection data for the month of May.

• Food, seed and industrial use was increased 5 million bushels as projected increases in the amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is partially offset by a decline in high fructose corn syrup. These FSI use changes are carried through for 2022-2023.

• With no other 2022-2023 use changes, ending stocks were hiked by 40 million bushels to 1.4 billion bushels.

• Global coarse grain production for 2022-2023 is forecast 3.3 million tons higher to 1.48 billion.

• Corn production was raised for Ukraine, reflecting higher area based on data reported by the government.

• Foreign corn ending stocks were raised relative to last month, mostly on increases for Ukraine and Russia.

• Global corn ending stocks, at 310.5 million tons, are up 5.3 million from last month.

Wheat: The projected 2022-2023 season average farm price was unchanged at $10.75 per bushel, compared to $7.70 the previous year. Why?

• Projected 2022-2023 ending stocks were increased by 8 million bushels to 627 million, still down 4% from 2021-2022.

• Supplies were raised on higher production with all wheat production projected at 1.737 billion bushels, up 8 million from last month. Winter wheat production was hiked to 1.182 billion bushels as increases for soft red winter and white winter more than offset a reduction for hard red winter.

• The U.S. all wheat yield is 46.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month.

• Global wheat supplies were decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1.052.8 billion as lower India production more than offsets an increase for Russia.

• Russia’s exports were raised 1 million tons to 40 million, which would be the second largest on record.

• Russia’s supplies are projected higher for 2022-2023 and its export prices are more competitive than most other exporters.

• Projected 2022-2023 world ending stocks were reduced by 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low.

Corn (2022-2023 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 15.97 billion bushels

Exports: 2.4 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.35 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.82 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.375 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.4 billion bushels

Soybeans (2022-2023 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.86 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 125 million bushels

Exports: 2.2 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.255 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 280 million bushels

Tom Doran

Tom Doran

Field Editor