USDA forecasts lower wheat production

WASHINGTON — U.S. winter wheat production is forecast at 1.17 billion bushels, down 8% from 2021.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its first 2022 survey-based crop production report estimates for wheat May 12.

As of May 1, the nation’s yield is forecast at 47.9 bushels per acre, 2.3 bushels below last year’s average yield of 50.2 bushels per acre.

Area expected to be harvested for grain is forecast at 24.5 million acres, a 4% drop from last year.

Dry conditions in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas are factoring into an increase in abandonment. If realized, the 2022 U.S. winter wheat abandonment of 28.4% will be the highest since 2002.

‘I’ Wheat

USDA estimated an Illinois winter wheat yield average of 75 bushels per acre, 4 below last year. Harvested acres are projected at 660,000, 50,000 above 2021, for production of 49.5 million bushels. The state produced 48.19 million bushels a year ago.

Indiana’s estimated average winter wheat yield of 76 bushels per acre is 9 below last year’s record. Harvested acres are projected to decline from 270,000 acres in 2021 to 240,000 this year. Indiana production is estimated at 18.24 million bushels, compared to 22.95 million in 2021.

Methodology

Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between April 29 and May 9 to gather information on expected yield as of May 1.

The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 9,300 producers representing all major production areas. The survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and internet.