Ukraine-Russia conflict imperils Black Sea crops, world food supplies

EXETER, England — Mike Lee has canceled his travel plans — for now.

Lee, the founder and owner of Green Square Agro Consulting, a United Kingdom-based agricultural consulting business that focuses on crop forecasts from the Black Sea area of Europe, was supposed to travel to Ukraine to meet up with farmers and get a firsthand look at the progress of crops and planting in the Black Sea area that includes Ukraine, Russia and Moldova.

“I was on my way to Ukraine next week, obviously not now,” Lee posted Feb. 24 on his Twitter account, in response to messages of concern, just hours after the Russians invaded Ukraine.

Lee is continuing to check in on friends and colleagues in the war-affected region.

“We are in contact with our friends and colleagues in Ukraine and Russia. Everyone is concerned, but currently safe,” Lee said.

Lee often travels to and focuses on Ukraine, Russia, Moldova and other Black Sea nations to report on planting progress and crop conditions.

On Feb. 24, Lee issued a special report on his read of the crop and export situation in the Black Sea region.

The impact of any disruption to planting and crop production and export operations could have a significant effect on global food supplies and food production.

“A lot of Black Sea wheat goes to North Africa and the Middle East, who rely on regular shipments to keep bread prices low. Presumably, these regions would kick back hard against any blockage,” Lee said.

A large share of grain exports move through the Ukrainian Black Sea ports of Kherson, Mykolaiv and Chornomorsk and the deep water Black Sea ports of Odesa and Yuzhniy.

“As grain prices go through the roof, which they are already starting to do, the commercial pressure to ship grain will be tremendous,” Lee said.

On Feb. 28, according to Reuters, the head of Ukraine’s Maritime Administration, Vitaly Kindrativ, said Ukraine’s ports will remain closed until the invasion by Russia ends. Kindrativ said around 100 vessels remained blocked in Ukraine ports by Russian navy vessels, according to the Reuters report.

Lee noted that the cost of shipping due to risk could be a major drag on exports from the Black Sea ports. At least three non-military boats have been struck by bombs, all near the Black Sea port of Odesa, since the invasion started on Feb. 24.

“Insurance and risk tolerance of ship owners willing to enter ports in a war zone is more likely to affect exports,” Lee said.

With the winter wheat crop planted in the autumn in Ukraine, Lee said the big question about that crop’s future lies with the ability of farmers to apply fertilizers, pesticides and to harvest the crop.

He said the current forecast is for Ukrainian farmers to harvest 26 million to 27 million metric tons of wheat. With domestic consumption at 9 million to 10 million metric tons, that would leave, for the unencumbered wheat crop, some 16 million to 17 million metric tons for export.

“If the situation on the ground escalated to a point that farmers could not apply fertilizers or pesticides and assuming they could harvest it (in July), there would still be a wheat crop, probably something like 16 to 17 million metric tons,” Lee said.

The current forecast for the Ukrainian corn crop unencumbered, or unaffected by war, is for Ukrainian farmers to harvest 37 million metric tons of corn, planted on 5.5 million hectares — 1 hectare is about 2.47 acres.

Corn is planted in April and May in the Black Sea region, including Ukraine. With about 7 million metric tons of the 2022 corn crop going for domestic consumption, that would leave about 30 million metric tons for export for the 2022-2023 marketing year.

“This could drop to zero if farmers cannot plant the crop. A middle ground would be fewer hectares and lower yield from fewer inputs, giving a possible crop of 19 million metric tons, with exports down to 12 million metric tons,” Lee said.