WASHINGTON — Season-average crop prices for 2021-2022 were stable to up in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report released Feb. 9.
Here are the highlights of the report.
Soybeans: The U.S. season-average price is forecast at $13 per bushel, 40 cents higher than last month. Why?
• Soybean meal exports were reduced by Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay as drought-reduced crops limit crush prospects. Brazil’s soybean crop was reduced by 5 million tons from last month to 134 million, Paraguay was lowered 2.2 million to 6.3 million and Argentina was reduced by 1.5 million to 45 million.
• U.S. soybean crush is forecast at 2.215 billion bushels, up 25 million from last month on favorable crush margins and improving prospects for soybean meal exports.
• With soybean exports were unchanged, ending stocks were reduced 25 million bushels to 325 million.
• The soybean meal price is forecast at $410 per short ton, up $35. The soybean oil price forecast is raised a penny to 66 cents per pound.
• Lower supplies and higher prices reduce global meal demand, particularly for China, where soybean crush and imports were lowered 3 million tons to 94 and 97 million, respectively.
• Global soybean ending stocks were reduced by 2.4 million tons from last month to 92.8 million.
Corn: USDA left the current market year’s season-average farm price unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. Why?
• The U.S. corn supply and used balance sheet was unchanged relative to last month.
• Brazil corn production was reduced by 1 million metric tons based on lower yield expectations for first crop corn. Paraguay corn production is down as extreme heat and dryness sharply reduce yield prospects.
• Global coarse grain production for 2021-2022 is projected 2.7 million tons lower to 1.497 billion.
• Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting a forecast reduction for Brazil that is partly offset by an increase for Argentina. Global corn stocks, at 302.2 million tons, are down 0.9 million from last month.
Wheat: With expectations for cash and futures prices, USDA increased the season-average price by 15 cents to $7.30 per bushel. Why?
• Food use was reduced by 3 million bushels to 959 million with durum accounting for the entire reduction. This is primarily based on the latest National Agricultural Statistics Service flour milling products report.
• Seed use was revised downward 2 million bushels to 64 million on the incorporation of NASS seed use data for the first two quarters of the marketing year. Seed use was also revised for the previous two years with updated NASS data.
• Exports were reduced by 15 million bushels to 810 million on slowing export sales and shipments with reductions for hard red winter and white.
• Projected 2021-2022 ending stocks were raised 20 million bushels to 648 million, but are still 23% lower than last year.
• Global wheat supplies are projected falling by 1.1 million tons to just over 1.066 billion as reduced production more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The majority of production decreases are in the Middle East, where both Iraq and Syria are reduced due to the prolonged dry conditions.
• Projected 2021-2022 world all wheat ending stocks were lowered 1.7 million tons to 278.2 million with reductions for Canada and India partially offset by increases by the United States and Ukraine. Global stocks are now projected at a five-year low.
Corn (2021-2022 marketing year)
Total corn supply: 16.375 billion bushels
Exports: 2.425 billion bushels
Feed, residual use: 5.65 billion bushels
Food, seed, industrial use: 6.76 billion bushels
Ethanol and byproducts: 5.325 billion bushels
Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.54 billion bushels
Soybeans (2021-2022 marketing year)
Total soybean supply: 4.707 billion bushels
Seed, residual: 118 million bushels
Exports: 2.05 billion bushels
Crushings: 2.215 billion bushels
Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 325 million bushels
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