October 19, 2021

USDA revises old crop yield averages

WASHINGTON — The year-end quarterly stocks report included revisions in “I” states’ old crop yield averages.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released the quarterly grain stocks report Sept. 30, reflecting the 2020-2021 marketing year ending crop supplies.

‘I’ State Yield Revisions

USDA decreased Illinois’ 2020 average corn yield to 191 bushels per acre, a bushel lower than the estimate in the annual crop summary released in January. The revision reduced total production to just over 2.12 billion bushels. The previous estimate was 2.13 billion.

The average soybean yield in Illinois in 2020 was increased one bushel from the previous estimate to 60 bushels per acre. Production for last year was now estimated at 615 million bushels, 10 million above the earlier projection.

Indiana’s corn 2020 corn yield average was unchanged from the previous estimate of 187 bushels per acre.

The 2020 record soybean crop in Indiana grew even further as USDA increased the average yield to 59 bushels per acre, one higher than the then-record projection in the annual summary report issued in January. Production was increased from 329 million bushels to just over 338 million.

USDA lowered the 2020 average corn yield in Iowa by a bushel to 177 bushels per acre. The change put the state’s corn production at more than 2.283 billion bushels, compared to the earlier estimate of 2.29 billion.

USDA found an additional bushel in Iowa’s soybean projection, increasing the average yield to 54 bushels per acre. The revision boosted the state’s production to 505.98 million bushels. The previous estimate was 494 million bushels.

Corn Stocks

U.S. old crop corn stocks in all positions on Sept. 1 totaled 1.24 billion bushels, down 36% from Sept. 1, 2020.

Of the total corn stocks, 395 million bushels are stored on farms, down 47% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 842 million bushels, are down 28% from a year ago.

The June-August 2021 indicated disappearance is 2.87 billion bushels, compared with 3.08 billion bushels of corn during the same period last year.

Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and farm program administrative data, the 2020 corn for grain production was revised down 71 million bushels from the previous estimate.

Planted area was lowered to 90.7 million acres, and area harvested for grain was revised to 82.3 million acres.

The nation’s average corn yield for 2020 was lowered to 171.4 bushels per acre compared to 172 bushels per acre in USDA’s annual crop production summary.

Soybean Stocks

Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on Sept. 1 totaled 256 million bushels, 51% lower than on Sept. 1, 2020.

Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 68.1 million bushels, down 52% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 188 million bushels, are down 51% from last September.

Indicated disappearance for June-August 2021 totaled 513 million bushels of soybeans, 40% below the same period a year earlier.

Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings and farm program administrative data, the 2020 soybean production was revised up 80.8 million bushels from the previous estimate.

Planted area was revised to 83.4 million acres, and harvested area was revised to 82.6 million acres.

The 2020 U.S. yield, at 51 bushels per acre, is up 0.8 bushel from the previous estimate.

All Wheat

U.S. all wheat stored in all positions on Sept. 1 totaled 1.78 billion bushels, down 18% from a year ago.

On-farm all wheat stocks are estimated at 419 million bushels, 41% below a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.36 billion bushels, are 6% than a year ago.

The June-August 2021 indicated disappearance is 711 million bushels, up 2% from the same period a year earlier.

Corn Stocks by Position

Sept. 1, 2020 and 2021

(1,000 bushels)

Illinois

On-farm 2020: 52,000

On-farm 2021: 44,000

Off-farm 2020: 199,456

Off-farm 2021: 83,820

Indiana

On-farm 2020: 30,000

On-farm 2021: 25,000

Off-farm 2020: 59,603

Off-farm 2021: 48,457

Iowa

On-farm 2020: 140,000

On-farm 2021: 55,000

Off-farm 2020: 233,270

Off-farm 2021: 199,370

Soybean Stocks by Position

Sept. 1, 2020 and 2021

(1,00 bushels)

Illinois

On-farm 2020: 13,000

On-farm 2021: 10,000

Off-farm 2020: 52,958

Off-farm 2021: 26,248

Indiana

On-farm 2020: 7,000

On-farm 2021: 4,700

Off-farm 2020: 17,973

Off-farm 2021: 16,017

Iowa

On-farm 2020: 26,000

On-farm 2021: 10,500

Off-farm 2020: 76,231

Off-farm 2021: 31,496



Tom Doran

Tom Doran

Field Editor