October 19, 2021

USDA projects higher supplies, lower prices

WASHINGTON — After multiple months of steady to upward price projections, the U.S. Department of Agriculture backed down on corn, soybean and wheat estimates in the Sept. 10 supply and demand report.

Here are the highlights of the report.

Corn: USDA lowered the season-average price received by producers by 30 cents from last month to $5.45 per bushel. Why?

• Projected beginning stocks for 2021-2022 are 70 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2020-2021, with reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports.

• Corn production for 2021-2022 is forecast at 15 billion bushels, up 246 million from last month on increases to harvested area and yield.

• The national average yield is forecast at 176.3 bushels per acre, up 1.7 bushels from last month’s estimate, while harvested area for grain is forecast at 85.1 million acres, up 0.6 million.

• Total U.S. corn use for 2021-2022 was increased by 150 million bushels to 14.8 billion. Feed and residual use was forecast up by 75 million bushels based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected prices.

• Exports for 2021-2022 were increased 75 million bushels to 2.5 billion.

• With supply rising more than use, ending stocks were forecast up by 166 million bushels to 1.4 billion.

• Foreign corn ending stocks for 2021-2022 were raised 8.8 million tons to 261.9 million, mostly reflecting an increase for China.

Soybeans: The U.S. season-average price for the 2021-2022 marketing year is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, 80 cents lower than last month’s estimate. Why?

• Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, up 35 million with lower harvested area more than offset by a higher yield forecast of 50.6 bushels per acre.

• Harvested area is down 0.3 million from the August forecast.

• Soybean crush was reduced 25 million bushels reflecting a lower forecast for domestic soybean meal disappearance.

• The U.S. soybean export forecast was raised by 35 million bushels on increased supplies and lower prices.

• Ending stocks are projected at 185 million bushels, up 30 million from last month.

• Foreign oilseed production was lowered 1.5 million tons to 499.8 million mainly on lower canola production for Canada and the European Union.

• Higher beginning stocks for China and higher U.S. ending stocks account for most of the global 2021-2022 soybean ending stocks increase, which were increased by 2.7 million tons to 98.9 million.

Wheat: The season-average farm price was lowered a dime to $6.60 per bushel. Why?

• U.S. all wheat supplies were reduced as imports are lowered 10 million bushels to 135 million on the import pace.

• Food use was hiked by 2 million bushels to 964 million, reflecting an upward revision of 2020-2021 food use.

• Exports were unchanged at 875 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class changes.

• Projected 2021-2022 ending stocks were lowered 12 million bushels to 615 million and are 27% below last year and the lowest in eight years.

• Global supplies are projected to rise by 7.1 million tons to nearly 1.073 billion, on the combination of larger beginning stocks for Canada, the European Union and India and higher production for Australia, India and China.

• Australia’s production was increased 1.5 million tons to 31.5 million on continued widespread favorable conditions to date. This would be Australia’s third largest wheat crop on record.

• Projected 2021-2022 world ending stocks were increased 4.2 million tons to 283.2 million with India, the European Union and Canada accounting for most of the increase, although global stocks remain below last year.

Supply and Demand

Corn (2021-2022 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.208 billion bushels

Exports: 2.475 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.7 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.625 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.2 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.408 billion bushels

Soybeans (2021-2022 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.574 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 118 million bushels

Exports: 2.09 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.108 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 185 million bushels

Tom Doran

Tom Doran

Field Editor