July 25, 2021

Minimal movement in crop balance sheets

WASHINGTON — Plugging the survey-based acreage numbers into the crop balance sheets didn’t move the needle much either direction on July 12.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates included the 2021-2022 “weather-adjusted” trend yield projections for corn and soybeans that have been used the past several months and will plug-in new crop survey-based yield estimates in the August report.

Here is the supply and demand estimates report highlights.

Soybeans: The season-average old crop price was dropped 20 cents to $11.05 per bushel and the projected 2021-2022 price was reduced 15 cents to $13.70 per bushel. Why?

• The 2020-2021 season-average price was lowered as early-season sales at lower prices continue to weigh on the season-average forecast.

• Soybean changes for 2020-2021 include lower imports, crush and exports. With offsetting changes in supply and use, ending stocks are unchanged at 135 million bushels.

• U.S. oilseed production for 2021-2022 is projected at 130.5 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month, with increases for sunflower seed, peanuts and cottonseed partly offset with a reduction for canola.

• New crop soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, unchanged from last month. Harvested area, forecast at 86.7 million acres in the June 30 acreage report, is unchanged from last month, but up 4.4 million from last year.

• The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 50.8 bushels per acre.

• Soybean supply and use forecasts are unchanged from last month and 2021-2022 ending stocks remain at 155 million bushels.

• The 2021-2022 global soybean ending stocks were increased by 1.9 million tons to 94.5 million as higher stocks for Brazil and Argentina are partly offset by lower Chinese stocks. The stocks revisions reflect notable balance sheet changes for Brazil and Argentina in 2020-2021 and China in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022.

• Exports for Brazil and Argentina for 2020-2021 were reduced as high prices lead to lower shipments to China.

• China’s imports were lowered by 2 million tons to 98 million and 1 million tons to 102 million for 2020-2021 and 2021-2022, respectively.

Corn: USDA lowered the season-average farm price by a dime from last month to $5.60 per bushel in 2021-2022. Why?

• Corn beginning stocks are lowered 25 million bushels, based on greater feed and residual use for 2020-2021 as indicated in the June 30 grain stocks report.

• Corn production for 2021-2022 is forecast 175 million bushels higher based on greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 acreage report. The national average corn yield is unchanged at 179.5 bushels per acre.

• During June, harvested-area weighted precipitation for the major corn producing states was below normal, but did not represent an extreme deviation from the 1988 to 2020 average.

• Total U.S. corn use for 2021-2022 is forecast 75 million bushels higher with increases for feed and residual use and exports. Feed and residual use was raised by 25 million bushels reflecting a larger crop.

• Corn exports were increased by 50 million bushels, with sharply lower exports expected for Brazil.

• With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are up 75 million bushels.

• This month’s 2021-2022 foreign coarse grain outlook was for lower production and use, larger trade and smaller stocks relative to last month.

Wheat: The projected 2021-2022 season-average farm price was increased by 10 cents per bushel to $6.60. Why?

• All wheat production was lowered by 152 million bushels to 1.746 billion.

• The all wheat yield is projected at 45.8 bushels per acre, down 4.9 bushels from last month’s projection. This was the first survey-based production forecast in the 2021-2022 crop year.

• The production forecasts for durum and other spring wheat indicated a significant decline compared to last year for these two classes due to the severe drought conditions affecting the Northern Plains. Partially offsetting this decrease is higher winter wheat production, both on increased harvested acreage and a higher yield.

• Imports were hiked by 20 million bushels to 145 million.

• Beginning stocks were reduced on the June 30 grain stocks report, which indicated lower 2020-2021 ending stocks than previously estimated.

• Projected 2021-2022 world ending stocks were lowered by 5.1 million tons to 291.7 million, but remain above last year.

Corn (2021-2022 marketing year):

Total corn supply: 16.272 billion bushels

Exports: 2.5 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.725 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.615 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.2 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.432 billion bushels

Soybeans (2021-2022 marketing year):

Total soybean supply: 4.575 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 119 million bushels

Exports: 2.075 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.225 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 155 million bushels

Tom Doran

Field Editor