WASHINGTON — Lower production projections moved ending stocks down and corn and soybean price projections upward in the Nov. 10 supply and demand estimates.
Here are highlights from the U.S. Department of Agriculture report.
Corn: The season-average price was increased by 40 cents from last month to $4 per bushel. Why?
• U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.507 billion bushels, down 215 million from the October estimate with a reduction in yield to 175.8 bushels per acre.
• Corn exports were increased by 325 million bushels to 2.650 billion, a record high if realized.
• Projected feed and residual use was lowered 75 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices.
• With supply falling and use increasing, corn ending stocks for 2020-2021 are down 465 million bushels to 1.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2013-2014.
• Total coarse grain imports for China are forecast to reach a record 26 million tons, just above the previous high of 25.7 million reached during 2014-2015.
• Global corn ending stocks, at 291.4 million tons, are down 9 million from last month.
Soybeans: The U.S. season-average price for 2020-2021 is forecast at $10.40 per bushel, up 60 cents from last month. Why?
• Soybean production is forecast at 4.17 billion bushels, down 98 million on lower yields. Lower yields are reported for several major producing states, including Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio and Nebraska.
• With reduced production, soybean ending stocks are projected at 190 million bushels, down 100 million from last month. If realized, soybean ending stocks would be at the lowest level in the past seven years.
• The 2020-2021 foreign oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production and crush, resulting in lower exports of oilseed meals and vegetable oil.
• Argentina’s soybean production was reduced by 1.5 million metric tons as economic uncertainty reduces area expansion.
Wheat: USDA kep the projected average farm price at $4.70 per bushel. Why?
• The domestic use projection was increased, primarily on higher food use, which was hiked by 5 million bushels to 965 million, up from 962 million for 2019-2020. This increase is based mainly on the flour milling products report, which indicated higher food use for the early part of the marketing year than previously estimated.
• All wheat exports and imports were unchanged this month but there were offsetting by-class changes for both exports and imports.
• Projected 2020-2021 ending stocks were reduced by 6 million bushels to 877 million, down 15% from last year.
• Global supplies were increased 0.7 million tons as higher beginning stocks offset lower global production, which remains at a record.
• Most of this month’s production decrease is for Argentina, where production was lowered 1 million tons to 18 million. The lingering impacts of drought and local freeze damage have caused Argentina’s forecast yield to be the lowest in eight years.
• China’s import pace continues to be robust and at 8 million tons, imports would be the largest since 1995-1996.
• Projected 2020-2021 world ending stocks were reduced by 1 million tons to 320.5 million but remain record high.
Supply And Demand
Corn (2020-2021 marketing year):
Total corn supply: 16.527 billion bushels
Exports: 2.65 billion bushels
Feed, residual use: 5.7 billion bushels
Food, seed, industrial use: 6.475 billion bushels
Ethanol and byproducts: 5.05 billion bushels
Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.702 billion bushels
Soybeans (2020-2021 marketing year):
Total soybean supply: 4.709 billion bushels
Seed, residual: 138 million bushels
Exports: 2.2 billion bushels
Crush: 2.18 billion bushels
Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 190 million bushels