MCHENRY, Ill. — Slightly lower corn and soybean yields across most of the Midwest were reported in a producer survey released Sept. 2.
The producer survey coordinated by Allendale Inc., an agricultural commodity brokerage and analysis firm, estimated the nation’s average corn yield of 178.28 bushels per acre and soybeans at 51.93 bushels per acre.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August report projected corn to average 181.83 bushels per acre and soybeans at 53.3 bushels per acre.
Allendale’s survey put total corn production at 14.98 billion bushels and soybean production of 4.311 billion bushels.
The survey’s “I” state yield projections for corn were Illinois, 203 bushels per acre (USDA projected 207); Indiana, 192 bushels per acre (USDA 188); and Iowa, 185 bushels per acre (USDA 202).
Soybean yield projects were 61 bushels per acre in Illinois (USDA projected 64), Indiana was estimated it at 63 bushels per acre (USDA 61), and Iowa was at 53 bushels per acre (USDA 58).
The 31st annual nationwide producer yield survey was conducted Aug. 17-28. The surveys were conducted direct by Allendale brokers, as well as via the firm’s website and social media platforms.
The estimates were based on producer calculated yields in 27 states. Ample surveys gave Allendale the numbers needed to project yields in 12 states. This covers 87% of corn production and 85% of soybean production.
For this survey, the smaller states were assumed using USDA’s Aug. 12 estimates. Harvested acres were assumed using USDA’s Aug. 12 estimates.
Rich Nelson, Allendale chief strategist, dissected the numbers in a webinar following the release of the survey data. Here’s what he had to say.
On Corn
"Allendale’s survey found a total corn production decline of 298 million bushels. So, this does represent a moderate decline and a note of some concern.
"We are recognizing problems with Iowa. In fact, the Allendale survey suggested 185 bushels per acre, down by 17 bushels per acre versus USDA’s report last month.
"There’s a decline of 4 bushels for Illinois to 203 bushels per acre from USDA’s 207 estimated last month. Nebraska, the No. 3 corn producing state, declined by 2 bushels to 189 bushels per acre compared to USDA’s 191. So, there are declines in the top three corn states.
"We are recognizing some problems like those noted in Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska, but some of these issues are, according to our survey, balanced out by some other states.
"Allendale’s survey has a high degree of accuracy, especially for corn. Over the last 10 years, the error rate compared to the September USDA report averages out to only about 1.1%. In nine of the past 10 years, our survey has slightly undercounted corn yields versus USDA’s September report.”
On Soybeans
"The survey had about a 114 million bushel decline compared to USDA’s numbers in August for total soybean production," Nelson said.
"Iowa dropped by 5 bushels an acre, Illinois dropped by 3 bushels per acre and Nebraska declined by 9 bushels an acre from the USDA number in August.
"The hardest issue with making soybean yield determinations in August no matter what method you’re looking at with crop tours or producer surveys in this case is the numbers are not as strong. The error is about 3.4% versus USDA’s September report on average of the past 10 years.
"Also interesting in Allendale’s survey, in each of the past 10 years our survey has undercounted versus USDA’s September report in each of the past 10 years. In most cases not dramatically so, but just keep that in mind."
On Dry Conditions
"In making yield estimates in August, no matter what the method is, whether it’s a crop tour or in this case a nationwide producer survey, this is simply a snapshot into a window of time. It still does not take into consideration some of the other factors past August weather.
"This is an issue many may have regarding the dryness developing and continuing into September and will that mean there will be some yield declines. It certainly could. On the other hand, the general history from recent years is for a rebound in yields as we go from August to final.
"Don’t be locked into a viewpoint that this yield discussion is already done. It is not. We really won’t know these numbers until we get into the fields. These numbers are not locked in."
On Iowa Results
"The impact of the derecho storm in Iowa that packed winds over 100 miles per hour that knocked down corn is still being determined," Nelson said.
"The survey didn’t have a lot of major declines in terms of producers showing very, very poor yields. Obviously, there were some clear concerns about the key problem producers but the number of people who said they had less than 100 bushels for a whole farm average was very minimal.
"So, if there’s a surprise it’s not that there were lower yields. I think that was represented and I do think that’s accurate.
"The surprise was that we didn’t have a few more producers saying they had less than 120 for a whole farm average or 100 bushels for a whole farm average.
"We did not have a whole farm operation say they had 100 or zero bushels. They simply had fields which they’re going to zero out but not a whole farm."
On Crop Sales
"The survey also asked producers about how much of their old crop and new crop they have sold.
"Producers sold 95% of their old crop compared to 93% last year and 78% at this point in 2018. New crop corn sales for 2020 are at 24% after selling 26% by August 2019 and 25% in 2018.
"On the positive side, we do have a lot of old crop moved out. I was a little surprised about the new crop numbers. Twenty-four percent sold fits in line with the previous two years.
"I had maybe assumed that we might have a little problem as far as new crop sales rates, but it would appear that producers caught up on some low sales in recent weeks on the slow rally we’ve had in terms of the corn market.
"Surveyed producers indicated 96% of old crop soybeans are sold compared to 92% in August 2019 and 79% in 2018. New crop soybeans sold are at 28% after reaching 16% last year and 33% by August of 2018.
"I think our movement past $9 certainly got a lot of old crop moved in the past few weeks. As far as new crop sold, we’re probably a little bit behind but probably not that dramatic.
"I would probably estimate with our current rebound price which just moved past the ending of our survey on Aug. 28 we’re certainly going to catch up on any lost soybean sales."