WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — There were minimal changes in the June U.S. Department of Agricutlure Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates compared to May.
“If you look at the 2019 numbers, they had a very small harvested acreage reduction coming out of the northern part of the Corn Belt,” said James Mintert, director of the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture, during a webinar.
“They also reduced 2019 yield estimates slightly by four-tenths of a bushel per acre. You put those two together, that pulls down 2019 production by about 46 million bushels.”
The season average price projection for 2019 corn remained at $3.60.
The report’s 2020 corn numbers didn’t change drastically. The season average price projection remained at $3.20.
“The big news on the 2020 crop will happen in a couple weeks when the acreage report comes out and we find out how many acres were actually planted on corn and soybeans,” Mintert said.
On the soybean side there were no changes in harvested acreage or yields.
Production estimates went down by 5 million bushels total.
“They did increase the crush estimate by 15 million bushels, but they reduced exports by 25 million,” Mintert said. “The net result (was an) expected carryover of 5 million bushels to 585 million from 580 a month ago.”
The season average price projection for 2019 soybeans remained at $8.50.
“Looking at 2020, they increased the expected crush compared to a month ago, and total usage as a result went up by 15 million bushels,” Mintert said.
Season average price projections were unchanged at $8.20.
The USDA is forecasting record corn production of almost 16 billion bushels this year, but there are still a few unknowns.
The numbers will depend on yields and whether farmers planted what they intended to plant in March.
“In March, farmers said they were going to plan 97 million acres of corn and 83.5 million acres of soybeans,” Mintert said. “But conditions changed since March 1. The real question is, did farmers really alter their plans from their March intentions?”
“A 1 to 2 million acre shift from corn to soybeans could easily happen,” said Michael Langemeier, associate director of the Center for Commercial Agriculture.
The next USDA WASDE reports will be released July 10.
Learn more about Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture at www.ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/home.
In A Nutshell
• Very small harvested acreage reduction in 2019 corn
• Lowered 2019 corn yield by 0.4 bushels per acre to 167.4
• Acreage and yield reduction pulled 2019 production down by 46 million bushels
• No changes to 2020 corn, except for slightly larger 2019 crop carryover
• 2019 soybean production went down 5 million bushels
• Increased soybean crush by 15 million bushels