WASHINGTON — A first look at the new crop balance sheet was unveiled in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates on May 12.
In general, USDA’s 2020-2021 marketing year forecast includes a return to pre-pandemic demand and higher supplies.
Here are the details.
Soybeans: USDA projects the 2020-2021 season-average price at $8.20 per bushel, down 30 cents from 2019-2020.
Why?
• The soybean crop is projected at 4.125 billion bushels, up 568 million from last year on increased harvested area, at 82.8 million acres, and trend yields, at 49.8 bushels per acre.
• Despite lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected up 5% from 2019-2020 to 4.720 billion bushels.
• U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2.05 billion bushels, up 375 million from the revised forecast for 2019-2020.
• With higher global soybean import demand for 2020-2021 led by expected gains for China, U.S. export share is expected to rise to 34% from the 2019-2020 record low of 30%.
• U.S. ending stocks for 2020-2021 are projected at 405 million bushels, down 175 million from the revised 2019-2020 forecast.
• Global soybean production is forecast up 26.6 million tons to 362.8 million with Brazil’s crop rising 7 million tons to 131 million and Argentina’s crop is up 2.5 million tons to 53.5 million.
• Global protein meal consumption outside of China is projected to increase 2% in 2020-2021, down from the prior five-year average of 3% due to the slowing global economy. Protein meal consumption in China at 6% is stronger than the prior few years; however, as China recovers from the August 2018 outbreak of African swine fever.
• Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 98.4 million tons, down 1.9 million from 2019-2020.
Corn: The 2020-2021 season average farm price is projected at $3.20 per bushel, down 40 cents from 2019-2020 and the lowest since 2006-2007.
Why?
• Stocks relative to use at 22.4% would be the highest since 1992-1993.
• The 2020-2021 U.S. corn crop is projected at a record 16 billion bushels, up from last year on increased area and a return to trend yield.
• The yield projection of 178.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2019 time period.
• Despite year-over-year beginning stocks down, total corn supplied are forecast at a record high 18.1 billion bushels.
• Food, seed and industrial use is projected to rise 245 million bushels to 6.6 billion.
• Corn used for ethanol is projected to increase from the 2019-2020 COVID-19 reduced levels, based on expectations of a rebound in U.S. motor gasoline consumption.
• U.S. 2020-2021 corn exports are forecast to rise 375 million bushels to 2.150 billion, driven by growth in world corn trade.
• The global coarse grain outlook for 2020-2021 is for record production and use and larger ending stocks. World corn production is forecast record-high, with the largest increases for the United States, Brazil, Ukraine, Mexico and Canada.
Wheat: A projected season average farm price of $4.60 per bushel is unchanged from 2019-2020.
Why?
• The outlook for low U.S. corn prices is expected to restrain 2020-2021 wheat prices.
• Supplies were decreased by 121 million bushels from 2019-2020 on lower carry-in stocks and smaller production.
• The 2020-2021 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1.866 billion bushels, down 3% from last year on lower yields offsetting higher harvested acreage.
• The all-wheat yield is projected at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from last year.
• The first 2020 survey-based winter wheat production forecast of 1.255 billion bushels is down 4% from 2019, on lower hard red winter and white winter production.
• Total 2020-2021 domestic use is projected down nearly 3% on reduced feed and residual use as record-large 2020-2021 corn supplies are expected to displace wheat for feeding.
• Higher food use is partially offsetting as 2020-2021 is projected up 2 million bushels to 964 million, up from a revised 2019-2020 estimate of 962 million, which was raised 7 million this month.
• Projected 2020-2021 ending stocks are 69 million bushels lower than last year at 909 million.
• Projected 2020-2021 world ending stocks increased 5% to a record-large 310.1 million tons with China accounting for 52% of the total.