March 29, 2024

More exports needed as big pig numbers continue

DES MOINES, Iowa — U.S. pork producers are keeping barns and packing plants full, and that isn’t stopping anytime soon. The big question, that also won’t go away anytime soon, is where will all that pork go?

If U.S. and Chinese trade officials and administrations can get their issues ironed out, U.S. pork will continue going to China and to other parts of Asia that have been impacted by African swine fever.

“Just to give you an idea of the kind of exports we’ve been looking at, I’m tracking not only U.S. exports to China, but also the other countries and entities that have exportable surplus, primarily the EU, Canada and Brazil,” said Bob Brown, president of Bob Brown Consulting in Edmond, Oklahoma.

Brown was one of four livestock market analysts who spoke on a Pork Checkoff-sponsored media call following the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s fourth-quarter Hogs and Pigs report in December.

Brown pointed out that U.S. exports have continued to be strong, though producers themselves may not be seeing the financial benefits from that.

“It’s kind of a shame that we are in this large export time — even though we have record production, we are probably shipping record amounts overseas — and hog producers, so far, really have not gotten to benefit from that,” Brown said.

Brown said the numbers show that exports from the countries with surplus pork show China has been actively buying.

“In the month of October, which is the last actual data we have for all four of those entities, pork exports to China just exploded. They were all over 275,000 metric tons, which was a new record high, and up 126% from the same month a year ago. The great thing to look forward to is the EU, in that October number, was 2.5 times the combined volume of Brazil, Canada and the U.S.,” Brown said.

In November, China lifted a ban on pork and beef imports from Canada, and Brown expressed the hope that the EU volume may spread out over other exporting nations.

“We can hopefully look forward to those kinds of volumes again, but spread out a little more evenly among the countries now that Canada can ship to China again and hopefully we’ll get some trade issues resolved with China and the USA can also ship more pork,” Brown said.

Those big pig and little pig numbers look to continue.

The U.S. swine breeding herd, as of Dec. 1, was at 6.461 million, up 2.1% from a year ago and a marked increase over the pre-report estimate of up 1.6%.

The September-November farrowings were at 3.166 million litters, down 1.2%, and that was estimated to be steady at 100% of the same time a year ago.

December-February farrowing intentions, at 3.129 million, was up 1% from a year ago and above the pre-report estimates of up 0.4%.

The March-May farrowing intentions, at 3.147 million, was up 0.4%, a decrease from pre-report estimates of up 1.1% from actual farrowings the same time a year ago.

The September-November pig crop, at 35.101 million, set a new record. That number was up 1.8% from a year ago and was expected to be up 2.9%.

The September-November pigs saved per litter was at 11.09 pigs, up 3% from a year ago, and also was expected to be up 2.9%. That number is a record for the quarter.

As of Dec. 1, 2019, U.S. pork producers had 77.338 million pigs on hand, a record for the quarter, up 3% from a year ago and slightly above pre-report estimates of up 2.9%.