March 20, 2023

Soybean end stocks projected lowest in seven years

Supply, demand estimates

WASHINGTON — Corn and soybean export projections went opposite directions in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March 8 world supply and demand estimates report.

Here are the highlights:

Soybeans: USDA kept the 2022-2023 season-average price unchanged from last month at $14.30 per bushel. Why?

• Soybean exports were raised 25 million bushels to 2.02 billion based on higher-than-expected shipments through February.

• Crush was reduced on a small reduction in domestic soybean meal disappearance combined with a higher extraction rate.

• With higher exports more than offsetting lower crush, ending stocks were lowered by 15 million bushels to 210 million. If realized, ending stocks would be the lowest in seven years.

• With relatively strong domestic demand for soybean oil limiting export competitiveness, U.S. soybean oil exports were reduced 200 million pounds to a historically low 500 million. Higher domestic use and reduced production are offsetting, leaving soybean oil stocks unchanged this month.

• Global oilseed production was lowered by 6.8 million tons to 629.9 million, mainly on lower soybean and sunflower seed production for Argentina partly offset by higher Australia rapeseed production.

• Soybean production for Argentina was lowered 8 million tons to 33 million on dry and hot weather conditions.

• Global soybean ending stocks were reduced by 2 million tons to 100 million, with lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil and the U.S. that are partly offset by higher stocks for China.

Corn: The projected season-average price was reduced by a dime from last month to $6.60 per bushel based on reported prices to date. Why?

• Exports were reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date despite relatively competitive U.S. prices.

• With no other use changes, U.S. ending stocks are up 75 million bushels from last month.

• Argentina’s production was lowered by 7 million tons from the February estimate to 40 million due to continued heat and dryness during February and into early March that reduced yield prospects for late-planted corn.

• Major global trade changes for 2022-2023 include higher projected corn exports for India, Ukraine, and Paraguay, with reductions for Argentina and the U.S.

• Imports are lowered for Turkey, Iran, Malaysia, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Morocco, Peru and Taiwan.

• Global corn ending stocks, at 296.5 million tons, are up 1.2 million.

Wheat: The season-average price is unchanged from the February projection for 2022-2023 at $9 per bushel. Why?

• There were no changes on the U.S. wheat balance sheet.

• Global supplies were lowered slightly as an increase in production nearly offsets a decrease in beginning stocks, which were reduced mostly on an increase in China’s 2020-2021 feed and residual use. This reduction is based on an updated analysis of government old-crop wheat stocks auction data. Nearly offsetting this change, global production is raised 5.1 million tons to 788.9 million primarily on increases for Kazakhstan, Australia and India.

• Global ending stocks were lowered by 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argentina, Kazakhstan and Australia.

Supply And Demand

Corn (2022-2023 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 15.157 billion bushels

Exports: 1.85 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.275 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.69 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.25 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.342 billion bushels

Soybeans (2022-2023 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.566 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 121 million bushels

Exports: 2.015 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.22 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 210 million bushels

Tom Doran

Tom Doran

Field Editor