WASHINGTON — Data from the recently released marketing year-end grain stocks report and small grains summary, combined with lower production pushed supplies lower, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Here are the highlights of USDA’s world agricultural supply and demand estimates report issued Oct. 12.
Corn: The 2022-2023 season-average price received by producers was increased by 5 cents from last month to $6.80 per bushel. Why?
• U.S. corn production was forecast at 13.895 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduction in yield to 171.9 bushels per acre.
• Corn supplies were forecast at 15.322 billion bushels, a decline of 172 million bushels from last month, as lower production and beginning stocks were partially offset by higher imports.
• Exports were reduced 125 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand.
• Projected feed and residual use was increased 50 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2021-2022.
• Corn used for ethanol was lowered 50 million bushels.
• With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks for 2022-2023 were cut 47 million bushels to 1.172 billion bushels.
• Foreign corn production was lowered as declines for the European Union and Serbia were partly offset by an increase for India.
• Foreign corn ending stocks were down, mostly reflecting reductions for China and Ukraine.
• Global corn stocks, at 301.2 million tons, were down 3.3 million from last month.
Soybeans: The U.S. season-average price for 2022-2023 was forecast at $14 per bushel, down 35 cents from last month. Why?
• Soybean production was forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 65 million on lower yields. Harvested area was unchanged at 86.6 million acres.
• The soybean yield was projected at 49.8 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from the September forecast.
• With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, U.S. supplies were reduced 31 million bushels.
• U.S. soybean exports were lowered 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America.
• With lower exports partly offset by increased crush, domestic ending stocks were unchanged from last month at 200 million bushels.
• Foreign production was increased 3.3 million tons to 519.7 million mainly on higher soybean and rapeseed production.
• Soybean production for Brazil was hiked by 3 million tons to 152 million, reflecting higher area reported by Brazil’s National Supply Company.
• Global 2022-2023 soybean exports were raised 1 million tons to 168.8 million with higher exports for Argentina and Brazil that were partly offset by lower exports for the United States and Paraguay.
• China’s soybean imports were increased 1 million tons to 98 million with higher global supplies.
• Global soybean ending stocks were raised 1.6 million tons to 100.5 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil.
Wheat: Based on reported National Agricultural Statistics Service prices to date and futures and cash price expectations, the season-average farm price was raised 20 cents to $9.20 per bushel. Why?
• Supplies were reduced on lower 2022-2023 production based on the NASS small grains summary that indicated reductions in both harvested area and yield. This lowered production by 133 million bushels to 1.650 billion, leaving production only minimally higher than last year.
• Partially offsetting the production decline were higher projected hard red spring imports which were increased by 10 million bushels to 120 million.
• Annual feed and residual use was reduced 30 million bushels to 50 million, based on first quarter disappearance, as indicated in the NASS grain stocks report. This is the lowest first quarter total disappearance since 1983-1984.
• Wheat exports were lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million on reduced supplies, slow pace of export sales and continued uncompetitive U.S. export prices. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since 1971-1972.
• Projected U.S. ending stocks were lowered 34 million bushels to 576 million, which would be the lowest since 2007-2008.
• Global wheat consumption was reduced 0.9 million tons to 790.2 million on lower food, seed and industrial use more than offsetting higher feed and residual use.
• World trade was lowered 0.6 million tons to 208.3 million on reduced exports by the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU exports.
• Projected global 2022-2023 ending stocks were lowered 1 million tons to 267.5 million mostly on a reduction for the United States.
Corn (2022-2023 marketing year)
Total corn supply: 15.322 billion bushels
Exports: 2.15 billion bushels
Feed, residual use: 5.275 billion bushels
Food, seed, industrial use: 6.725 billion bushels
Ethanol and byproducts: 5.275 billion bushels
Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.172 billion bushels
Soybeans (2022-2023 marketing year)
Total soybean supply: 4.602 billion bushels
Seed, residual: 122 million bushels
Exports: 2.045 billion bushels
Crushings: 2.235 billion bushels
Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 200 million bushels
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