November 29, 2021

USDA lowers corn stocks, hikes soybeans

WASHINGTON — Corn and soybean projected ending stocks went opposite directions in the Nov. 9 U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report.

Here are the highlights.

Corn: The season-average price received by producers was unchanged from last month’s report at $5.45 per bushel. Why?

• Corn production is forecast at 15.062 billion bushels, up 43 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to a record 177 bushels per acre.

• Corn used for ethanol was increased 50 million bushels, based on September data from the grain crushings and co-products production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of October.

• With use rising slightly more than supply, corn ending stocks were lowered 7 million bushels to 1.493 billion bushels.

• Global coarse grain production for 2021-2022 is forecast 5.1 million tons higher to 1.499 billion.

• Foreign corn production is projected higher as increases for Argentina, the European Union and several African countries more than offset a decline for the Philippines.

• Global corn ending stocks, at 304.4 million tons, are up 2.7 million.

Soybeans: USDA forecasts a 2020-2021 season-average price of $12.10 per bushel, down 25 cents from last month. Why?

• Soybean production is forecast at 4.42 billion bushels, down 23 million on lower yields. Lower yields in Indiana, Iowa, Ohio and Kansas account for most of the change in production.

• Exports were lowered this month reflecting reduced global imports and lower-than-expected shipments through October.

• With use falling more than supply, soybean ending stocks were increased 20 million bushels from last month to 340 million bushels.

• Global 2021-2022 soybean production was reduced 1.1 million tons to 384 million, with lower production for the United States and Argentina. Argentina’s production was lowered by 1.5 million tons to 49.5 million on a lower harvested area.

• Global soybean exports were reduced 1 million tons to 172.1 million, with lower exports for Argentina and the United States partly offset by higher exports for Brazil and India.

• With lower exports, China’s imports were reduced 1 million tons to 100 million.

• Global soybean stocks were lowered by 0.8 million tons to 103.8 million as lower stocks for Argentina and China are partly offset by higher U.S. stocks.

Wheat: The projected 2021-2022 season-average farm price was increased by 20 cents per bushel to $6.90. Why?

• U.S. supplies were reduced on lower anticipated imports, down 10 million bushels to 115 million on a continued weak import pace.

• Higher anticipated seed use for the 2022-2023 crop more than offsets lower expected food use driven by a slower-than-expected pace of flour milling as reported in the quarterly National Agricultural Statistics Service flour milling products report. As a result, total domestic use is projected 2 million bushels higher at 1.163 billion.

• Exports were reduced by 15 million bushels to 860 million, on lower anticipated exports of hard red spring and white wheat based on high domestic prices and muted export sales.

• Projected 2021-2022 ending stocks were raised slightly to 583 million bushels, up 3 million from last month’s forecast, but still the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2007-2008.

• Global supplies were projected down by 1 million tons to 1.063 billion based on decreases in beginning stocks and production.

• Projected global ending stocks are down 1.4 million tons to 275.8 million, with Australia, the EU and India accounting for most of the reduction.

Corn (2021-2022 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.323 billion bushels

Exports: 2.5 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.65 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.68 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.25 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.493 billion bushels

Soybeans (2021-2022 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.696 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 117 million bushels

Exports: 2.05 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.19 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 340 million bushels

Tom Doran

Tom Doran

Field Editor